Well that was a good weekend's wagering no matter how you dissect it.
What prevented it from attaining 'fantastic' status was the mercy shown by the teams occupying 1st and 2nd on the table, each of which slacked off in the latter parts of their respective games leading to our losing one line bet (on the Cats) by 4.5 points and the other (on the Saints) by just half a point.
This leniency cost those Investors with the Recommended Portfolio about 2% but still left them up 7.4% on the round and, as a result, now down just 13.5c on the season. MIN#002 also made money - about 6.4% - as did MIN#017, who made 11.5%. They're now down 12.3% and 54.3% respectively.
All up then, less than perfect but directionally encouraging.
Here's the details, as recorded in this week's MAFL Dashboard.
So as well as every Portfolio, every Fund increased in value this week, though only ELO and Heuristic-Based have recorded a net profit across the entire season.
On tipping, we have three joint leaders - Follow The Streak plus Short Term Memory I and II - all on 75.5 from 112 (67.4%). They lead Easily Impressed I and II by just one tip. The week's best round was recorded by Home Sweet Home, which bagged 8 from 8 as a result of victories by the seven home teams and by the team higher on the ladder in the one contest for which there was no home team (the Collingwood v West Coast game). Tipsters generally performed well this week, with the average score being 6.2 from 8.
Collingwood leapt two places on MARS Ratings this week, jumping into 2nd ahead of the Dogs and the Saints, who each slipped by one position. In other moves, Hawthorn and Sydney swapped places, with the Hawks taking 7th, and the Roos and Essendon also swapped places, with the Roos snatching the coveted 11th position.
Four Margin Tipsters now have sub-30 Mean Absolute Prediction Errors, Chi being the odd one out, and with BKB leading the pack with a MAPE of 28.3 points per game. All five Margin Tipsters now also have sub-30 median APEs, with ELO and LAMP responsible for the lowest median APEs of 26.0 points. HAMP has joined BKB in third on this metric, each of them with median APEs of 27.5 points.
HELP had a poor round attempting to tip line winners, managing just 2 from 8. Its probability scores suffered commensurately.
This week, winning teams kicked 64.8% of all the goals registered. That's the greatest proportion that winning teams have snared in any round this season, and takes the season-long proportion to 60.6%, which is a couple of percent higher than the historical average for this metric. Winning teams also kicked quite straight this week, none of them converting at a rate under 50% and most converting at a significantly higher rate, Richmond foremost amongst them in kicking 14.5. Their accuracy was the main reason they edged out the Swans who managed to convert just 48% of their 25 scoring shots.
2 comments:
"...the Roos snatching the coveted 11th position..."
Coveted? Must be some historic trend that says the 11th-placed team... wins the lotto?
And "directionally encouraging" - enough with your euphemisms for failure man! Although you could get a job writing annual reports if MAFL doesn't pay off :)
Firstly, re the "coveted 11th position": you ask any of the teams from the less-coveted positions 12th through 16th and you'll have your answer right there. There's a reason coveting scored a spot in the commandments.
Secondly, re "directionally encouraging", I think it's a phrase with enormous potential. Consider, for example, the following: "Responding to criticisms, the transport minister stated that he found the recent increase in on-time running from 22 to 23 percent to be 'directionally encouraging'".
Has there ever been a phrase more suited to such a task?
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