If you're an Investor this is probably a blog best read seated.
In six of the weekend's eight games the home team is the favourite, and in five of them it's the short-priced favourite. The reaction from the MAFL Funds to this circumstance - especially from the New Heritage Fund - has been akin to the response you get if you open a packet that sounds even vaguely like a chip packet within earshot of Chi: immediate and overwhelming interest, palpable desire and a fixation on securing a piece of whatever's on offer.
Here's what the result of all that interest looks like.
(I feel as though I should have triggered a warning when you clicked the "Read more" button just then ...)
If your maths is exceptionally good, you'll have noted that Investors with the Recommended Portfolio find themselves with 33 wagers across 8 games this week, totalling over one-third of Total Initial Funds - the greatest level of activity and the highest outlay in a single round in the history of MAFL.
A hefty slice of that total outlay has been wagered head-to-head on teams at prices of $1.33 and below, which means that the total upside in all of that activity falls some considerable distance short of the downside, as illustrated in the week's Ready Reckoner.
Only the Hawks v Bulldogs and Tigers v Swans games are of little consequence this weekend for Investors with the Recommended Portfolio. The Adelaide v Essendon game offers the greatest upside and is also the game with the largest difference between the best and worst results.
A Pies loss to the Eagles would be the single most painful result for the weekend for these Investors, although losses by either the Cats or the Saints would be less painful only in a strictly mathematical sense.
For MIN#002, as ever all losses are equally costly, while Crows and Blues wins would be most welcomed.
For MIN#017 the weekend holds the greatest terror of all. A worst-case set of outcomes would reduce this Portfolio to zero, while a best-case set of outcomes would restore only about 15% of its initial value. Over one-half of any increase would come from Adelaide and Carlton wins, and any of six separate outcomes could knock about 10% off the value of the portfolio.
The confidence displayed by the Funds is, for the most part, reflected in the tips of the MAFL Tipsters where we find four games with unanimous support for the favourite and three more games where at least 11 of the 15 tipsters foresee an Investor-pleasing outcome.
Here are the details:
- Carlton are the first of the week's unanimous favourites. They face the Lions and are tipped to win by margins ranging from 12 to 28 points.
- The Bulldogs are 11-4 favourites over the Hawks. LAMP is among the minority but tips the Hawks by just a point, making this its Game of the Round.
- Fremantle are unanimous favourites over Port and are tipped to win by anywhere between 12 and 42 points.
- Collingwood are unanimous favourites over West Coast. The Pies are predicted to win by between 9 and 57 points, the latter prediction belonging to ELO and representing the largest margin predicted by this tipster so far this season.
- Adelaide are 13-2 favourites over Essendon. ELO tips Adelaide to win by just 12 points, which makes this its Game of the Round.
- The Cats are 11-4 favourites over the Roos and are expected to win by a margin between 17 and 52 points.
- Richmond are 8-7 favourites over Sydney in the only game that's generating significant rates of disagreement this week. This uncertainty is reflected in the fact that three tipsters have this as their Game of the Round: HAMP, which tips Richmond to win by 1; Chi, who tips Sydney by 7; and BKB, which tips Richmond to win (probably) by 6.5 points.
- St Kilda are unanimous favourites over the Dees. The Saints are predicted to win by between 22 and 45 points.
That leaves me with only the HELP line predictions to report.
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