MAFL 2010 : Round 15

Investors face a far less breathtaking set of wagers this weekend.

In fact, they can take a complete breather until Saturday since none of the Funds have any interest in Friday night's Port v Collingwood game, despite Port playing at home and being priced at $5.00 head-to-head and +32.5 points on line betting.

Across the seven other games the Funds have conspired to find 20 wagering opportunities amongst themselves, in aggregate these representing about one-sixth of Total Initial Funds in the Recommended Portfolio.

The ELO-Line Fund is the busiest, with five wagers totalling 25% of the Fund. Prudence, with 4 four wagers totalling about 12% of that Fund, is next busiest, followed by New Heritage, Shadow and Hope, each with three wagers. Such is the New Heritage penchant for large wagers, however, its three bets total just under one-quarter of the Fund; Shadow's and Hope's three bets total around 15%.

The Heuristic-Based Fund is the week's quietest. It has just two wagers totalling 10% of the Fund.

Investors MIN#002 and MIN#017 have just three wagers each in total.

Here's the detail:

(Note I've updated this table, the Ready Reckoner, and the blog in general to reflect the fact that we've no line bet on Melbourne. Six and a half points start is just too much.

Friday edit: I've also updated them both now to reflect the fact that I'd reversed the prices for the Lions v Saints and Richmond v Freo games in these outputs - though fortunately not in the model inputs. Regretably the bookies hadn't reversed their prices, so I didn't get the Tigers at $4)

For Investors with the Recommended Portfolio the weekend's key matches are Carlton v the Dogs, which represents the largest potential win and the largest swing between the best and worst possible outcomes, and the Geelong v Hawthorn game, which represents the largest possible loss.

MIN#002 has the most to gain from the Carlton v Western Bulldogs game, and MIN#017 has the most to gain from the Sydney v Roos game and the most to lose from the Geelong v Hawthorn clash.

Whilst there are no unanimous favourites amongst the MAFL tipsters, in six of the eight contests there are no more than three dissenters and in the other two contests the split is only 9-6.

Here are the details:

• Collingwood are 14-1 favourites over Port Adelaide, the Margin Tippers predicting Pies victories by between 12 and 35 points.
• Geelong are 12-3 favourites over the Hawks. The Margin Tippers are all backing the Cats, and see them winning by anything between 4 and 39 points. Chi is one of these tipsters and has the Cats winning by 4 points making this one of his two Games of the Round.
  Short Term Memory I, however, is one of the three tipsters siding with Hawthorn, which is the reason Investors don't have a bet on the Cats from the Heuristic-Based Fund.
• Adelaide are 13-2 favourites over West Coast. LAMP has the Eagles winning by just 1 point, and Chi has the Crows winning by just 4 points, making this game both tippers Game of the Round (in Chi's case his second Game of the Round).
• St Kilda are 14-1 favourites over Brisbane. St Kilda are tipped to win by between 8 and 25.5 points.
• Fremantle are 12-3 favourites over Richmond. The Tigers do though have the support of Follow The Streak, one of the three joint-leaders of the MAFL Tipping Competition.
• Sydney are 14-1 favourites over the Roos, and the Swans are predicted to win by between 13 and 24 points.
• Melbourne are 9-6 favourites over Essendon. ELO tips Melbourne by 4 points making this one of its two Games of the Round.
• Carlton are 9-6 favourites over the Dogs, though the Dogs have the support of four of the five Margin Tippers, including BKB. ELO tips the Dogs to win by 4 points making this its other Game of the Round.

To finish then, the HELP line predictions, which are all for the away team and all with associated probabilities of 75% or higher.