MAFL 2010 : Round 16

Faced with six home team favourites Investors could easily have been facing another dose of high risk, low potential return wagering this weekend, but a combination of moderate wagers on the two at-home underdogs and larger wagers on some of the more attractively priced at-home favourites has resulted in a far more balanced portfolio of wagers, at least for those with the Recommended Portfolio.

New Heritage is back to its profligate ways, finding six teams sufficiently to its liking to risk 60% of the Fund on them. Its four largest wagers are on teams priced in the $1.15 to $1.40 range, however, so it'd be fairer to call it brave rather than suicidal.

The Heuristic-Based Fund, currently entrusted to the Short-Term Memory I heuristic, is the next-most active Fund, making five wagers totalling 25% of the Fund. Four of these wagers are on favourites and one is on an underdog. Prudence has also made five bets but its five represent a marginally smaller 24% of its Fund. In keeping with its name, Prudence has outlaid money only on favourites.

Shadow has made four wagers totalling 20% of the Fund, all on favourites also, and ELO's made three wagers totalling 15%, two on teams giving start and one on a team receiving it.

Hope is this week's, and indeed this season's, least active Fund. It's made just two bets totalling 9% of the Fund, though one of these is a weekend-defining 5.9% on Adelaide at $3.75 facing the Cats at Football Park on Friday night.

Hope's two bets represent the entirety of MIN#002's wagering activity this week, while New Heritage's six represent MIN#017's weekend pleasure and pain.

For those with the Recommended Portfolio the 25 wagers represent about 27% of the entire Fund.

Here's the detail:

For Investors with the Recommended Portfolio the weekend's key matches are Adelaide v Geelong, which is the matchup offering the largest potential gain, and the Dogs v Port game, which represents both the largest possible loss and the largest swing between potential win and potential loss. In truth though, all the games except Collingwood v St Kilda and Carlton v Sydney matter to those with the Recommended Portfolio this weekend as all of them carry potential swings of 5.5% or more.

MIN#002 cares most about the Essendon v West Coast game, as it represents for him both the largest possible gain and the largest swing between potential win and potential loss.

MIN#017 faces six games for which the potential swing is 12% or more. Only the Adelaide v Geelong and Carlton v Sydney games don't meet this description. The Collingwood v St Kilda and Richmond v Roos games offer about a 6% upside, the Dogs v Port game threatens a potential 12.5% loss, and the swing between the best and worst possible outcomes is greatest for the Dons v Eagles clash where the difference is almost 15%.

Here's the Ready Reckoner:

For those with the Recommended Portfolio, the profitability equation is a simple one this week: the results in at least five of the seven games need to go their way.

Tipsters, if those in MAFL can be considered a reliable guide, face a difficult time with three of the weekend's games. Two more of the games wold appear to require some thought, and the remaining three are the proverbial no-brainers.

Here are the details:

• Geelong are 9-6 favourites over Adelaide. All five Margin Tippers are on the Cats and are predicting victory margins between 3 and 23 points. ELO is the tipster at the top of the range and, by tipping the Cats by 23 points, passed on the opportunity to make a line bet on Adelaide by just half a point. ELO aside, the other competition leading MAFL tipsters - Easily Impressed I, Short Term Memory I and Follow The Streak - are all tipping a Crows win.
• St Kilda are 9-6 favourites over the Pies. In this game, the Margin Tippers are split 3-2 in favour of the Pies, though two of the Margin Tippers opting for the Pies - HAMP and LAMP - have them winning by only 1 point making this their Game of the Round. The four leading MAFL tipsters are split 2-2 on this game.
• Hawthorn are unanimous favourites over the Lions. The Margin Tippers predict victory margins in the 21 to 28 point range, ELO this time being the low bid and therefore declining to wager on the Hawks by just one-and-a-half points.
• Essendon are unanimous favourites over West Coast. Once again the range of victory margins selected by the Margin Tippers is very narrow - 16 to 22 points in this case. ELO tips the Dons to win by 17 points, which is just one half of a point less than the start they're being asked to give on line betting, so again there's no line bet here from ELO.
• The Dogs are unanimous favourites over Port. Margin Tippers predict victory margins ranging from 32 to 64 points. ELO is the tipster predicting the biggest blowout. Its 64 point margin prediction is the largest victory margin it has tipped this year and is the result of the rough 61 Ratings point difference between the sides, coupled with the Dogs' home team status.
• Sydney are 9-6 favourites over the Blues, though all five Margin Tippers are on the Blues with predicted margins ranging from 1 to 17 points. Chi is the tipster predicting the one point win and so has this as his Game of the Round. ELO has the Blues winning by 10 points, which is half a point less than the start that they're giving, so this is yet another game where ELO has declined a bet on the narrowest of bases. ELO aside, the remaining top MAFL tipsters are all supporting the Swans.
• Richmond are 11-4 favourites over the Roos. All five Margin Tippers predict a fifth successive win for the Tigers with margin predictions spanning the range from 1 to 25 points. ELO tips Richmond by 1 point and BKB has Richmond as its longest-priced favourite, which means that this game is both tipsters' Game of the Round. All four of the top MAFL tipsters are on the Tigers.
• Fremantle are 12-3 favourites over the Dees, with the Margin Tippers again being unanimous in their support. Predicted margins range from 26.5 to 33 points. The four top MAFL tipsters are split 2-2 on this game, however, with Easily Impressed I and Follow The Streak siding with Melbourne, and ELO and Short Term Memory I opting for Freo.

Something seems to be deeply, deeply wrong with HELP. This week it's served up eight line tips all on the away team and all carrying an identical probability forecast. Weird.