MAFL 2010 : Round 9

Just when you get into a routine, someone has to go and change something.

This week the TAB Sportsbet bookie decided to post the line markets a day early, leaving me with the dilemma of deciding whether to follow the time-honoured strategy of placing bets around noon on Wednesday or, instead, to follow the other time-honoured strategy of placing bets just after the line markets go up. In the past, save for those weeks where there's been a Thursday game, these two events have coincided.

Worse was the fact that only half the line markets were posted, so I couldn't make all the bets I wanted to anyway.

Well the bets have been placed though we're still waiting for four more line markets to be posted, three of which we'll be wagering on. (I've included these wagers in the MAFL Wagers summary and in the Ready Reckoner, though the latter might need to change if we don't secure a price of $1.90 for the three line market bets we want to make.)

(Update: It's now Thursday evening and we've placed the three remaining line bets. On two of the bets we've secured more favourable terms than I expected: backing Adelaide we wound up getting 7.5 points start rather than 6.5, and backing Sydney we received a price of $1.95 rather than $1.90. In the other bet we took West Coast +6.5 points but only received a price of $1.80. The Ready Reckoner below now reflects these wagers.)

Investors holding the Recommended Portfolio have 23 wagers this weekend - including the three wagers-in-waiting - just one fewer than they had last weekend. New Heritage has six of those wagers, Prudence and Hope have two each, Shadow and the Heuristic-Based Funds have three each, and ELO-Based will have the remaining seven.

In total, Investors with the Recommended Portfolio will have about 19% of their funds at risk this week, again only a tad less than they risked - and significantly lost - last weekend.

In aggregate, Essendon carries the majority of the week's wagers. They're priced at $1.28 and are playing Richmond, a team that appear to have decided to act as this year's quasi-bye, thereby allowing other teams to become accustomed to what they'll face next year when the Gold Coast joins the competition. Hawks fans might have a somewhat different view, of course, as their team went perilously close last weekend to dropping points to the bye.

Other bets are at prices ranging from $1.36 to $2.25, so none of the funds at risk can reasonably be tagged "best forgotten".

Here's the detail:

For those with the Recommended Portfolio, the Essendon v Richmond clash, by virtue of the shedload of cash on the Dons, represents the largest swing between best and worst outcomes. It also represents by some considerable margin the largest downside risk.

The Adelaide v Lions game carries the second largest swing between best and worst outcomes, which it does because it promises the largest upside should the Crows win and cover the spread but because it also threatens the second largest downside should the Crows lose.

Here's the Ready Reckoner in full (subject to amendment [Update: now duly amended] once the three remaining line bets are placed):

For the tipsters it's a weekend of moderate agreement, with unanimity in just one of the games.

• The Pies are 11-4 favourites over Geelong. The Cats can count BKB, Chi and the Easily Impressed brothers amongst their supporters, though BKB looks likely to have this game as one of its four - yes, four - Games of the Round, and no margin-tipper is predicting a victory margin in excess of 8 points.
• The Dogs are 14-1 favourites over the Roos, with only Home Sweet Home tipping the upset. All five margin-tippers are on the Dogs with margins ranging from 13 to 24.5 points.
• Fremantle are 9-6 favourites over the Swans, though all the margin-tippers are predicting a Swans victory. BKB will have this as another Game of the Round.
• Essendon are the week's only unanimous favourite. They face Richmond and are tipped to win by margins from 16 to 34 points.
• Port Adelaide are 12-3 favourites over the Dees. Three of the five margin-tippers - LAMP and BKB being the exceptions - are tipping Port victories, including ELO, who is tipping Melbourne by just 1 point, making this its Game of the Round.
• Adelaide are 10-5 favourites over the Lions. This is the Game of the Round for Chi (tipping a Crows victory by 2 points), LAMP (tipping a Lions victory by 1 point) and BKB (tipping a Lions victory by 6.5 points)
• Carlton are 11-4 favourites over the Hawks and are tipped by all five margin-tippers with margins ranging from 10 to 27 points.
• St Kilda are 9-6 favourites over the Eagles. This is the final Game of the Round for BKB. None of the margin-tippers are suggesting that either team will win by a sizeable margin - the largest tipped victory margin for St Kilda is 13 points and for the Eagles is 6 points.

The average number of dissenting tipsters per game is, therefore, about 3.5. This fact, coupled with the bookie's generally miserly points start offerings, suggests that this will be a difficult round to tip. Only the Dons and the Dogs might reasonably be considered 'bankers' and four, maybe five of the remaining six contests have a coin-tossy feel to them.

Whilst seasoned judges might be expressing high degrees of uncertainty about the head-to-head results, HELP's expressing near-certainty about the result of all eight games when adjusted for points start.

Remarkably, all eight HELP predictions are for the away teams. In contrast, the ELO-Based Fund will be making seven wagers on home teams. I think we all know which tipster we want to be incorrect more often.

This week I'll finish by providing my short version of the competition ladder, from which I'd like to highlight the Saints' performance. Despite losing three of their last four games they remain in the top eight. The table shows that this is not because of their points-scoring ability (for which they're ranked equal fourth last) but is instead attributable to their defensive skills: they've allowed only 583 points in their eight games, including only 10.5 goals per game.