MAFL 2010 : Round 10

At some point earlier today, for reasons I expect we'll never know, TAB Sportsbet felt comfortable in reopening the Saints v Crows markets, pricing them exactly where they'd been a couple of days previously when the allegations broke and attracting wagers from four of the five head-to-head wagering MAFL Funds. Among them only Hope abstained, as in fact it has on all eight games this round.

The ELO-Based Fund also chose not to bet on this game, deeming the 27.5 points start that the Saints were required to give just 1 point too many.

All told, the MAFL Funds have made 26 wagers this week, representing around 30% of the initial Funds placed in the Recommended Portfolio. All the head-to-head wagers are on favourites, at prices from $1.03 (yes - Geelong again) to $1.30.

The only wagers we have on underdogs are line bets - one on Essendon +19.5 versus the Dogs, and the other on the Lions +21.5 versus Collingwood.

Here's the detail:

This week Geelong carry the largest proportion of Recommended Portfolio funds though their ridiculously low price makes the upside from the head-to-head portion of those wagers fairly insignificant. As a consequence, it's the Port v Tigers and not the Cats v Dees game that represents the greatest difference between the best and worst possible outcomes.

Five matches have swings of around 5.8% or more riding on their outcome. None of them have upside greater than 1.4%. Such is the price of backing favourites. It's going to be a tough week to make a profit if you're in the Recommended Portfolio.

Here's the week's Ready Reckoner:

On the tipping front it's wholesale harmony this week. On three of the matches there's unanimity and in two more there's only a single dissenting tipster.

• The Dogs are 14-1 favourites over Essendon. Only Home Sweet Home is duty-bound to opt for the Dons. Notwithstanding the overwhelming support for the Dogs, both BKB and LAMP have this as their Game of the Round (though neither is tipping a single digit victory margin)
• Geelong are unanimous favourites over the Dees. Predicted margins range from 26 points to 50.5 points, so this could be a game that gets boring pretty quickly.
• Port Adelaide are unanimous favourites over the Tigers. For this game too the margin predictions are quite high - none is below 17 points.
• Collingwood are 13-2 favourites over the Lions. Tipped margins for the Lions start at 13 points and work their way up to 34 points.
• St Kilda are 14-1 favourites over the Crows, with all but one of the margin tippers predicting Saints victories by between 27 and 32 points.
• Hawthorn are 13-2 favourites over Sydney. This is the Game of the Round for ELO (tipping a Hawks victory by 4 points) and HAMP (tipping a Hawks victory by 23 points, which makes something of a mockery of the notion of a Game of the Round).
• Carlton are 12-3 favourites over the Eagles. Chi is one of the three dissenting votes. He has the Eagles winning by a point, making this his Game of the Round.
• Fremantle are unanimous favourites over the Roos. Predicted victory margins are from 14 points to 40 points.

The average number of dissenting tipsters per game is only 1.13 this week, a long way from last week's 3.25. So, the surprisals forecast for this week would be very low.

HELP's continues on its eccentric way, this week tipping all eight away teams, six of them receiving start, with probability estimates from 62% to 81%.

Here's to an exceptionally good weekend for BKB tipping ...