This week, again, we find ourselves just 24 hours from the first ball-up and without a full set of line markets. Currently, TAB Sportsbet are silent on what they'll be offering for the Freo v Hawks game, but I'm guessing it'll be Freo -6.5 points in which case we'll have no interest.
Not that we're short on interest this week. As we did last week, we've at least one wager in every game. Indeed, so eager have the various Funds been this week to ensure that we have comprehensive coverage, two of them have opted for wagers on competing teams in the same game.
So then, what have we got?
The New Heritage Fund has again found 6 wagers this week, virtually all of it on teams priced at $1.25 or under, the exceptions being a minuscule wager on Carlton at $1.55 and a slightly larger wager on Adelaide at $3.30. It's this larger wager on the Crows that Prudence has opted to cover by placing a slightly bigger wager on the Lions. In total, we've just over one-half of the New Heritage Fund at risk.
Prudence's 4 other wagers - aside from the Lions - are on the same teams that New Heritage has endorsed. The largest of them won't be resolved until the final game of the round: 6.5% on the Saints.
Next, the Hope Fund, our in-form Fund, has 2 bets this week, a modest wager on Freo at $1.83 and a far bigger and bolder wager on the Dees at $5.00, our first (and let's hope near to last) wager on this most hapless of teams.
Chi-squared has tentatively re-entered the wagering fray, with a sole but confident outlay on Freo up against the Premiers.
Finally, the Line Redux Fund has found 3 teams to favour with its affections this week, 2 of them giving start (Sydney and St Kilda) and 1 of them receiving start (Collingwood).
For those with the Recommended Portfolio, the largest profit would come with a Melbourne or Freo win, though a Sydney or a St Kilda win of sufficient magnitude to cover the respective spread would also be welcomed. The largest potential losses would come with a St Kilda or a Sydney head-to-head loss.
Turning next to tips:
* Fremantle are favoured 8-5 over the Hawks, though Chi has the Dockers as just 4 point favourites, making this game one of his two Games of the Round (Game of the Rounds?).
* The Bulldogs are favoured 11-2 over Melbourne, though the Dees can count amongst their supporters the highly-performed STM II.
* Geelong are, yet again, favoured 13-0, this time over the Roos. ELO has Geelong covering the 46.5 point spread.
* The Lions are also unanimous favourites, they against the Crows. ELO is predicting just a 9 point win for the Lions though, making this game its Game of the Round.
* Sydney are favoured 7-6 over the Eagles. STM II is once again alone amongst the tipsters-of-note, this time in supporting the heavy underdog West Coast.
* Port Adelaide are the unanimous tips facing the Tigers. Neither Chi nor ELO though have Port covering the 26.5 point spread.
* Collingwood are favoured 7-6 over Carlton. Chi is opting for the Blues by 4 points, making this his other Game of the Round. BKB is also on the Blues, though STM II and Shadow have sided with the underdog Pies.
* St Kilda are favoured 12-1 over the Dons, with EI II, a tipster 4 tips off the pace, the Dons' sole friend.
Finally, on Line Betting:
* Chi's line bets are Hawthorn, Melbourne, Kangaroos, Adelaide, Sydney, Richmond, Collingwood and Essendon.
* ELO's line bets are Hawthorn, Melbourne, Geelong, Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, Collingwood and St Kilda.
(For those of you who've made it this far, there's a new blog up on www.mafl-stats.blogspot.com looking at how the competition ladder will finally look if our MARS Ratings are vaguely accurate.)
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