Constant Dripping ...

Only now am I becoming accustomed to the attritional manner with which our current wagering strategy accumulates wealth, when and such as it does.

This week, 14 of our 21 wagers were successful, yet this produced only a 4% gain for those Investors with the Recommended Portfolio and so exposed to all 21 of those wagers.

The New Heritage Fund won 5 of 7 bets, taking it to 21 and 8 for the season. Prudence won 4 of 5 to move to 17 and 5 for the season. Hope managed just 1 from 2, taking it to 6 and 7 for the season, while Chi-squared bagged 2 from 3 to move to 5 and 4 for the season. And, finally, Line Redux managed 2 from 4, leaving it at 13 and 15 for the season.

All of which drove net returns to Investors ranging from a 0.6% loss for the Investor with only Hope to a 10.8% gain for the Investor whose portfolio is all in New Heritage. Season-wide, all Investors remain in profit.

(By the way, these returns are a little higher than indicated by the Ready Reckoner I prepared because I used a price of $1.60 for the Bulldogs in the Reckoner when, in fact, we had them at $1.65.)

While I was updating the spreadsheet of match results for the season I was struck once again by the statistical regularity in the relative scoring of winners and losers, even when considered at the relatively low level of a single round. As you can see from the table below, winning teams have scored between 57% and 63% of the goals in any single round, and have racked up between 56% and 59% of the scoring shots. That's a phenomenally narrow range.

Anyway, onto tipping. Silhouette bagged another 7 from 8, a score matched only by STM II. Silhouette and Shadow now lead our tipping competition on 55 from 80, one tip clear of BKB on 54 from 80.

On level-stake, home-team-only wagering, commencing in Round 6, our top 7 tipsters and EI II are all showing profit 

Finally, looking at line betting performances, ELO and Chi managed just 3 from 8 this weekend.

(When you've a moment, take a look at the current ladder. The Bulldogs, in third, are only 2 wins ahead of the Roos, in thirteenth, and 7 teams have a 5 and 5 record. It's shaping up as an extraordinary battle for the bottom 6 places in the top 8.)