MAFL 2010 : Round 21

The AFL contend that the Cats are taking on the Blues at home this Friday night. I contend that it's the Blues that are taking on the Cats at home.

When I made the decision to deem this game a Blues home game over 6 months ago, I had no idea quite how important it might prove to be for MAFL Investors. As a direct consequence of that decision, all but the New Heritage Fund were permitted only to wager on the Blues, and forbidden to wager on the Cats. Four of the Funds have taken this opportunity, which means that many Investors now own a large, egg-laden basket named "Carlton".

All told the Recommended Portfolio has 28 bets up for adjudication this weekend, and these total about 28% of the Fund. A quarter of those wagers are due to the New Heritage Fund - though it's the only Fund not wagering on the Blues - and these total over 60% of that Fund and carry a weighted average price of $1.37. The largest is 13.3% on Collingwood at the disturbingly short price of $1.03, and the riskiest is 6% on Port at $2.

The Heuristic-Based Fund is the next most active Fund, with Short-Term Memory I instructing it to place 6 wagers totalling 30% of the Fund at a weighted average price of $1.99. The riskiest of these is 5% on Carlton at $4.50.

Three other Funds have each made four wagers. Prudence's four total just over 20% of the Fund and have a weighted average price of $1.17. The largest bet is 6.6% on St Kilda at $1.08 and the riskiest is 1.5% on Port at $2. Shadow's another of the Funds with a quartet of wagers. Its four total exactly 20% of the Fund and sport a weighted average price of $2.15. It too has 5% on the Blues.

ELO also has four bets, each of 5%. Three of the four wagers are on teams receiving start -though two of these teams are receiving the minimum possible 6.5 point start and one of them is priced at $1.80 rather than the usual $1.90, so you could only call one of ELO's teams a genuine outsider.

Hope has only three bets, totalling 14% of the Fund, but they're at a weighted average price of $3.09, this average dragged up by a 6.1% wager on the Blues.

MIN#002 has these three Hope wagers as his weekend's action and MIN#017 has New Heritage's seven.

Here's the detail:

For the Recommended Portfolio, maximum upside - quite obviously - is tied to the Blues v Cats game (+10%), while maximum downside attaches to the St Kilda v Richmond matchup (-5.9%). The largest swing between best- and worst-possible results is also associated with the Blues v Cats game (13.2%).

MIN#002 also stands to gain most from a Blues victory (+17.5%).

MIN#017 will see his best result if West Coast beat the Roos (+6.2%), his worst result if Collingwood go down to Adelaide (-13.3%) and faces the largest swing between possible results of 14.6% on the Hawks v Freo game.

Here's the Ready Reckoner:

Whilst the Recommended Portfolio's array of wagers superficially looks balanced, this 'balance' is only achieved by the significant upside in the Blues v Cats game, roughly counter-balanced by the moderate downside in four other games and smaller downside in the remaining three.

I'm not sure that we should be relying on significant upsets to occur in Round 21 of the season, but that's what Investors with the Recommended Portfolio are faced with nonetheless.

To tipping then, where we find that the outcome of six of the contests is highly debated and that there's unanimity for the other two. The average number of dissenting MAFL tipsters per game is a high 4.25.

Here are the details:

• Geelong are 8-7 favourites over Carlton. The Margin Tippers are 5-0 in favour of the Cats and predict victory margins ranging from 19 to 30.5 points. The six best-performed MAFL Tipsters - Easily Impressed II, Follow The Streak, ELO, Silhouette, Consult The Ladder and Short-Term Memory II) are split 3-3.
• St Kilda are unanimous favourites over Richmond, the second week in a row that Richmond have been universally shunned by the MAFL tipsters. The Margin Tippers predict Saints victory margins of between 37 and 57 points.
• Hawthorn are 9-6 favourites over Fremantle. Once more the MAFL Tipsters are unanimous in their support and here they predict victory margins ranging from 12 to 38 points. The Top MAFL tipsters are split 4-2 in favour of Freo.
• Collingwood are unanimous favourites over Adelaide. The Margin Tippers tip the Pies by between 21 and 52.5 points.
• The Dogs are 10-5 favourites over the Swans, with the Margin Tippers split 4-1 in favour of the Dogs, LAMP the holdout tipping Sydney by 2 and having this as its Game of the Round. The largest predicted margin of victory by the Dogs is 17 points. The Top 6 tipsters favour the Dogs 5-1.
• Port Adelaide are 10-5 favourites over Melbourne, though the Margin Tippers favour the Dees 3-2. Chi tips Melbourne by 2, ELO Melbourne by 3, and HAMP Port by 1, making this the Game of the Round for all these tipsters. The Top 6 tipsters are also torn: they're split 3-3.
• Essendon are 9-6 favourites over the Lions, with the Margin Tippers unanimous in selecting the Dons, in this game by margins of between 5 and 15 points. The Top 6 tipsters are again split 3-3.
• The Roos are 10-5 favourites over West Coast. The Margin Tippers favour the Roos 3-2, and BKB has this as its Game of the Round. Predicted margins range from the Roos by 5 to West Coast by 6. Five of the Top 6 tipsters pick the Roos.

The Super Smart Model agrees with three of the four ELO wagers this week, disagreeing only with ELO's belief that 43.5 points start for Richmond won't be enough. SSM reckons that Richmond need another point.

Here's SSM's view of the entire round:

SSM's head-to-head tips are consistent with the majority opinion of the MAFL Tipsters except for the Dogs v Swans game, where SSM likes the Swans, and the West Coast v Roos game, where SSM favours the Eagles in a tight one.

With a hint of solidarity, the Bookie Probability Model recommends just one wager this week: 5% on Carlton. Even if the Blues don't win this weekend, I think it's fair to say that the MAFL Funds, as a whole, saw value in them at $4.50.

Lastly, the HELP line predictions.