Every Fund returned a profit on the weekend's wagering, leaving the Recommended Portfolio closer to profitability at the end of the round than it's been since it slipped carelessly into unprofitability in Round 8, and inching the portfolios of MIN#002 and MIN#017 just a little closer to daylight too.
On the strength of two perceptive wagers on Port Adelaide and Richmond, Hope has joined the Heuristic-Based and ELO-Line Funds by returning to profitability. It's done this despite having made a profit on only 14 of the 30 bets it's made this season.
Prudence is now priced at 98.5c, just a fraction short of profitability, but has a superficially much more impressive wagering record than Hope, having landed 40 of 55 selections. As I've said before, it's hard work making money when you bet mostly on favourites.
The Recommended Portfolio jumped over 6c this weekend to be priced now at about 96c, the MIN#002 Portfolio jumped a bit over 3c to reach 83.5c, and the MIN#017 Portfolio rose by over 5c to end the weekend at 47c.
Here's the latest Dashboard with all the details:
Easily Impressed II scored 6 from 8 this week, which enabled it to establish a 2-tip lead from Follow The Streak, Easily Impressed I and Short-Term Memory II. Follow The Streak grabbed its equal-second ranking by correctly predicting seven of the weekend's eight contests, which was the best performance of any of the MAFL Tipsters.
On average, the MAFL Tipsters scored 5.3 from 8.
Only four favourites snared the competition points, which lead to another six changes on the MARS Rating ladder, though none of these changes was by more than one spot. Fremantle and Carlton swapped 6th and 7th, Essendon and the Roos swapped 11th an 12th, and Richmond and West Coast swapped 15th and 16th.
The three highest-ranked teams - Geelong, the Dogs and Collingwood - are now separated by less than four Ratings Points but have a greater than 20 Ratings Point lead over the remainder of the teams. Sydney, who are now ranked 8th, are rated sub-1000 for the first time since the end of Round 1 of this season.
Very little change occurred in the Margin Tipper rankings this week. BKB's Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE) rose a touch over one-quarter of a point, but it remains in 1st place on this metric, ahead of LAMP and ELO, which both saw virtually change in their MAPEs.
Median Absolute Prediction Errors were unchanged for all Margin Tippers across the round, so LAMP still leads on this metric ahead of ELO and HAMP.
HELP recorded another 5 from 8 on line betting this week, which is the same score that the Super Smart Model (SSM) produced. HELP has now correctly predicted 48.6% on all line betting results so far this season, while SSM has managed 54.5% - though it's almost ludicrous to make such a direct comparison of these modelling algorithms. It's a bit like comparing a pricey Sauv Blanc with a Chateau du Cardboard and marvelling when the latter comes up a little short in the comparison.
To add further support to its claim for inclusion as a 2011 Fund, SSM also produced an MAPE for the round that was a point and a half per game superior to BKB's. SSM's season-long MAPE stands at 29.1 points per game, which is 0.08 points per game better than BKB's.
The Bookie Probability Model made its first published losing wager this weekend in suggesting a 9.1% wager on the Swans, but successful wagers on Port and Fremantle would have more than offset the loss from the Swans and produced a 6.7% increase across the weekend.
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