Sunday, April 26, 2009

Good Wagering, Hard Tipping

It'd be churlish to be disappointed about our wagering performance this weekend though it was only a stray goal from the Hawks that stood between our actual 3-2 performance and a far more impressive 4-1. Speaking of stray, the other losing bet was the Dogs, but no amount of alternative futuring could readily turn their performance into a victorious one.

So we finish the weekend with no Investor in the red and all but MIN#017 comfortably in the green.

Though we made money on the Funds' implicit tips, it was a tough weekend for our official tipsters, with 5 favourites losing. Our best tipsters - Silhouette, ELO and Home Sweet Home - managed just 4 from 8. (This week please note that I've added another column to the tipster performance summary on the right. It's headed "Return" and reflects the return that would have been achieved from a 1 unit wager on that tipster's tips.) 

Chi performed admirably on line betting, bagging 5 from 8, but this takes him to a no-better-than-chance 20 from 40 for the season. ELO slipped again, scoring just 3 from 8 this week, but remains profitable for the season with 23 from 40. (By the way, ELO has generally been profitable in seasons past if line wagers were placed only on those teams  predicted to win by 13.5 points or more after the handicap is taken into consideration. Following that strategy this year would have produced a 3.3 unit profit so far.)

If you're curious about the latest MARS Ratings, these are available on the MAFL Stats site. You'll see there that the 8 highest-ranked teams are, in order, Geelong, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Sydney, Adelaide and Carlton. Six of these teams are also in the top 8 of the competition ladder (which, by the way is also available on the MAFL-Stats site), the two differences being the inclusion of the Hawks and the Swans in the MARS Top 8 at the expense of Port Adelaide and Essendon.

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