Okay, here's a betting strategy - a heuristic if you will - that would have made money had you employed it in the previous three seasons, which is the only period over which I can reliably test it.
To use the strategy you need just three (arguably four) pieces of information about a game:
- which team is the home team (true or notional)?
- what's their price (and are they favourites)?
- are they higher up on the competition ladder?
The rule is that you bet one unit on the home team (true or notional) if:
- they're favourites, higher on the ladder than their opponents, and priced at $1.40 or more
- they're favourites, but lower on the ladder than their opponents, and priced at $1.70 or more
- they're not favourites, but are higher on the ladder than their opponents, and priced at $1.85 or more
If the home team (true or notional) is neither favourite nor higher on the ladder, don't bet.
You can use this strategy from Week 1 of the season, using the final home-and-away season ladder from 2008 to determine ladder positions for Round 1.
This strategy would have made between 45 and 47 bets in each of the previous three seasons, won between about 61% and 66% of them, and returned 5-10% of the amount outlayed.
I'm not promising anything for this year for this strategy, but its pedigree is as good as any of the MAFL Funds'. Consider it a gift.
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