This year we'll once again be using surprisals as a way of quantifying how unpredictable the results of each round and each team have been.
In addition to measuring the surprisal of head-to-head results, which is what we did last year, we'll also look at how surprising each result has been from a line betting point of view - a measure of how accurately the bookies have been able to predict not just the winner but the margin too.
If you're interested in the details, please download this document.
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