Saturday, September 25, 2010

MAFL 2010 : Round 26 Results (of a fashion)

After that it all feels a little flat.

I just assumed there'd be extra time on Saturday and at least an attempt to find a winner on the day; making 44 players, 2 coaching staffs, 100,000 spectators and countless fans go through that all again seems cruel, unusual and frankly unnecessary.

Anyway, there it is - we've a Round 27 this year and another set of potential wagers, and I've a chance to see how many of my spreadsheets and programming scripts will break when faced with an unprecedented 27th round.

Whilst the teams walked away from the weekend no worse off than they entered it, the same can't be said for Investors. Our line bet on Collingwood giving 16.5 points start was, of course, a losing one, and our head-to-head wager paid off at only half price, which for us on the Pies at $1.45 was just 72.5c in the dollar. As a result, the Recommended Portfolio dropped 1.3% and MIN#017's dropped 2.9%. However - and I didn't expect this cliche to get another run - there's always next week.

Here's the Dashboard for Round 26:



Collingwood dropped a bit over 1 point on MARS Ratings as a result of the weekend's non-result, but still maintain a lead over the Cats of about that same margin. A loss next weekend, or even a win by just 1 or 2 points, would see them finish the season behind the Cats on MARS Ratings.

The Pies' MARS Ratings loss was the Saints' gain. Their 1 point increase served to increase their superiority over the Dogs, which now stands at 4 Ratings points. The Saints have no hope of overhauling the Cats though and grabbing 2nd spot unless they can contrive to produce a string of draws that imperils the venuing for the Boxing Day Test.

Each of the top 3 Margin Tippers based on Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE) knocked 0.07 points from their respective MAPEs this week, leaving the ordering of BKB, LAMP then HAMP unchanged but dragging BKB under 29.5 points per game, LAMP now comfortably under 30, and HAMP within 0.04 points of 30.

ELO was the only Margin Tipper whose Median APE changed - up 0.5 points to 27, relegating it to joint third with HAMP, behind LAMP and BKB on 26 and 26.5 points respectively.

See you all again next week.

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