Who'll Be There in September (Maybe)?

With just 6 rounds to go in the competition, a few articles are emerging about how the teams will fare over the remainder of the season and, most importantly, who'll finish where in the top 8.

Using the MARS Ratings from MAFL Stats I've also predicted the results for the remainder of the season, details of which appear below:



On the right of the table I've provided the game-by-game projections for each team. Green boxes denote victories, red losses, and a bracketed "H", "A" or "N" denote Home, Away and Neutral Ground venues respectively.

If these projections are accurate, there's not a lot of change that we'll see amongst the top 8. In fact, we'll see no change at all in terms of its membership and only a couple of significant changes in terms of its ordering.

Carlton, I'm forecasting, will leap 3 places and secure a top 4 spot, beating Collingwood (currently 4th), the Roos (12th), Port (9th), Melbourne (15th), and Adelaide (6th) in so doing, losing only to the 2nd-placed Geelong in Round 19. This string of results will draw Carlton level with the Lions on 56 points, but will see them grab 4th with a superior percentage.

Collingwood will surrender their top 4 spot, dropping to 6th due to losses to Carlton (7th), Adelaide (6th), and the Dogs (3rd). Victories over the Lions (5th), Richmond (14th), and Sydney (11th) won't be enough.

Port Adelaide and Hawthorn are projected to finish level with the Dons on 44 points but will miss a spot in the eight on percentages, in Hawthorn's case despite finishing the season with a three-game winning streak.