Wednesday, March 18, 2009

An Important Message for All Investors

The information about each MAFL Fund that I've provided in the downloadable PDF includes how many bets each Fund can be expected to make during the course of the season and how big those bets are likely to be.

For clarity and to avoid surprising anyone, I thought it would be appropriate to re-present some of the data in the PDF from a weekly rather than a whole of season perspective. I've done this in the following table.


So, if you're investing in New Heritage, be aware that it will, if history's any guide, invest at least 25% of the Fund each week and as much as 70% of the Fund in the most extreme weeks. That is a large proportion of the Fund to put at risk but recognise that the average price of the teams on which the Fund wagers is just $1.57. At that price, firstly it's highly unlikely to lose a long string of bets and, secondly, the Fund needs to bet larger amounts in order to generate worthwhile profits.

Similarly, if you've some Chi-squared in your portfolio, be aware that you'll have 25% of the Fund in play about 4 weeks in 10 and around 55% in the most extreme weeks.

Even the Prudence, Hope and Line Redux Funds will occasionally splurge and have 25-35% of Funds at risk, although each of these these Funds will generally be much more sedate than this.

Bearing in mind that it'll only be the Line Redux Fund trading for the first 4 weeks of the season, if you're at all uncomfortable about your portfolio weightings now that you've read this blog you still have plenty of time to advise me of any changes that you'd like to make.

Otherwise, get ready to watch your money work much harder this year.

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