When Finalists Meet

If the teams in the finals are the best teams in the competition (and the MARS ratings say otherwise, but nonetheless) then it seems to make sense to focus on the games in which they've faced off in assessing each team's relative chances. The tables below have been constructed including just those games.

Finals Week 1

Here's the detail for Week 1 of the Finals and the road thereafter.

(The base image comes from www.wikipedia.com.)

The GFC (Galling Football Crisis)

Ouch.

Perhaps that was the "Saturday we had to have".

As you know by now, I don't do excuses. So, instead, allow me to, completely impartially, present you with the details of what I'm now calling "Sobering Saturday". (Yes, there were other, less G-rated alternatives that I considered.)

Game 1: Geelong v Fremantle

The Cats dominate Freo and build steadily to lead by 55 points, 70-15, at the 5-and-a-half minute mark of the 3rd term, already covering the 47.5 points start we'd given.

They score only 24 more points in the game's remainder and concede 39, eventually winning by only 40 points, securing our head-to-head bet but surrendering our line bet in the process.

The Recommended Portfolio drops 0.9% - a mocking portent of what was to come.

Game 2: Hawthorn v Essendon

The Hawks complete two solid quarters of football and lead by 28 points late in the 2nd term before conceding the term's final goal to usher the Dons into the half-time break with just a sniff, trailing by 22 points.

Essendon pile on 21 unanswered points from the 7 minute to the 16 minute mark of the 3rd term before the Hawks briefly steady and limp into the 3-quarter-time break still up by 5 points.

But the signs are already there, and the Dons swamp the Hawks in the final term, scoring 6.7 to 3.3 to win by 17 points.

The Recommended Portfolio drops another 5.1% and a trend is established.

Game 3: Carlton v Adelaide

Carlton impress early to lead the Crows by 30-8 at the 17 minute mark of the 1st term but muster just 2 more goals in the 1st term while conceding 6 to finish the term with a 5 point lead.

They then kick just 9 more goals in the game while the Crows kick 21.

The Recommended Portfolio drops another 3.4% and we have what a stockmarket analysis might call a bear run.

Game 4: Sydney v Brisbane Lions

The Swans lead early - hmmm, there's a familiar theme - but never by much, and proceed to leak goals from the middle of the 2nd term to the early part of the 3rd, finding themselves down by 39 points at the 8 minute mark of the 3rd term.

Cruelly, over the course of the next 17 minutes they kick 5.1 to 0.0 to close within 8 points of a faltering Lions, before the Lions kick a confidence-restoring goal just before the final break.

Next, the Swans register the opening 13 points of the final term to trail by just a point. At the 15 minute mark of the term the Lions kick their first goal, to which the Swans reply some 10 minutes later to restore the deficit to 1 point. But the Lions scramble and cling on to win by 8 points.

The Recommended Portfolio drops another 4.3% and optimism excuses itself and leaves by the nearest exit.

Game 5: Port Adelaide v Kangaroos

Port are scratchy - they need to win by over 100 points to have a chance of making the finals, but you'd never guess it - but eke out a 20-point lead by the 10-and-a-half minute mark of the 3rd term.

What follows has, by now, a hint of inevitability.

Port enter stage left and concede 19 points in 5 minutes before snagging briefly on a ledge on the way down, registering a couple of late behinds to face the final term with a lead of just 3 points.

The Roos kick the opening 7 points of the final term to lead by 4, before Port scrambles three behinds to fool the audience and trail by 1. The suspense is deftly built as a handful of behinds are traded - though both teams are ostensibly in the market for goals - before Port secures a 6-pointer 30 seconds into time-on to lead by 4.

Port glances to the stage wings and whispers "prompt" and then, remembering its lines, concedes 1.2 - the goal coming from a debatable 50m penalty - while eschewing further point-scoring itself and goes on to lose by 4 points. Right on cue.

The Recommended Portfolio drops another 3.4% and the day's destruction is over.

In summary, for those with the Recommended Portfolio: the New Heritage Fund recorded 3 winning wagers from 6 bets, dropping 19.4%; Prudence snagged 2 from 3 but still dropped 3.6%; Hope lost its only bet and dropped 6.7%; Chi-squared lost 3 of 3 and plummeted 26.9%; and Line Redux landed just 1 of 4 and fell by 21.4%.

So, the Recommended Portfolio fell by 15.4%, leaving it down about 2.5% on the season. Other portfolios fell by between 15% and 20%, leaving them narrowly to moderately up on the season. The best portfolio is MIN#017's, which is up by a tick under 12%.

Anyway, on to tipping.

Astonishingly, BKB has finished out of the MAFL Tipster medals this year. Silhouette - who registered 6 from 8 this week, equal-best with Shadow - finished 1st, with an incredible 124 from 176 (71%). Second went to CTL with 120 (68%), and 3rd went to Shadow with 119 (68%).

ELO and BKB finished joint-4th on 117 (67%).

Four tipsters finished the home-and-away season in the black on level-stake, start in Round 6, Home Team only wagering: Silhouette, CTL, Shadow, and STM II. This is the fourth consecutive season in which these tipsters have finished in profit using such a strategy.

On line betting, ELO recorded a modest 4 from 8, but is still up on level-stake wagering, now by just under 7 units. Chi managed just 3 from 8 to drop further into deficit for the season.

ELO's MAPE now stands at 28.6 points per game and its Median Absolute Prediction Error at 23 points per game, leaving it narrowly behind BKB's MAPE (28.3 points) and narrowly ahead of BKB's Median APE (23.5 points). Chi languishes on both measures, with a 30.7 points per game MAPE and a 27 point Median APE, though neither of those results are of a "go to your kennel" level of incompetence.

So, on to the Finals ...

(Congratulations go to Dan on winning the Pick the Finishing Order Competition. Plaudits too go to Tim and Rohan who finished 2nd and 3rd.)

Just How Much Do the Dees Want the Priority Pick?

Stakes at Stake
(** See updates on the Hawthorn v Essendon line wager, below.)

If my knowledge of Catholicism serves me well, St Jude is (or was) the Hope of the Hopeless. How apt then that it's the Hope Fund that has chosen to lavish its final attention for the Home and Away season on last-placed Melbourne at $11, taking on the first-placed and joint flag favourites, St Kilda.

The Hope Fund is risking just 6.7% on the Dees, making this bet a relatively lucrative proposition for many Investors with fairly limited downside. Basically, it's a Heritage Fund wolf-style wager dressed up in sheepish Hope clothing.

In other news, the New Heritage Fund has 6 wagers totalling a tick under 60% of the Fund, the largest a 13.3% wager on the Cats at $1.03 taking on Fremantle at the Cats' cradle, and the riskiest a 4.8% wager on the Dogs at $2.15 sparring with the Pies for a 3rd-place finish.

Prudence, meantime, has just 3 wagers for about 15% of the Fund, its largest being 5.9%, also on Geelong, and its riskiest 4.6% on Port Adelaide at $1.33, who face the Roos.

Chi-squared also has 3 wagers, though they're a little larger on average than those of Prudence and total 27% of the Fund. The largest and riskiest is 9.8% on the Hawks at $1.80 in their spot-in-the-finals and earn-a-chance-to-defend-the-Premiership clash with the Dons.

Line Redux has, at this point, just 3 wagers too, totalling 15% of the Fund, though this is likely to change once the Hawks/Dons line market is posted on TAB Sportsbet anytime soon now. I'm expecting a wager on the Hawks, but the size of it will depend on the price offered.

(** Update at 2:45pm on Friday: Hawthorn opened on Line betting at $2.15 giving 6.5 points start. Line Redux really likes that deal and has plonked 15.9% of the Fund on the Hawks - comfortably its largest wager of the season.)

In total, the Round's wagering represents somewhere bewteen the 4th- and 6th-largest outlay for Investors this season.

(** Now 2nd to 5th.)

Ready Reckoner
This outlay provides the following risk-reward tradeoff:



For most then it's the Melbourne v St Kilda, (and now Hawthorn v Essendon), Sydney v Brisbane Lions, and Geelong v Fremantle matchups that represent the widest gap between potential profit and possible loss.

Tipping
This week's tipping features an absence of unanimous favourites (assuming the lack of something can legitimately be called a feature). In fact, no team has fewer than 3 supporters this week, though not all of the minority support comes from particularly convincing sources.

We have:

• West Coast as 10-3 favourites over the Tigers. None of the Top 5 MAFL tipsters are siding with the Tigers.
• Geelong as 8-5 favourites over Fremantle. Again, the underdog support is bereft of high-profile MAFL tipsters.
• Hawthorn as 10-3 favourites over Essendon. Essendon can count CTL and Silhoutte amongst its more comforting backers.
• Carlton as 9-4 favourites over Adelaide. Both Silhouette and Shadow are tipping the upset.
• The Lions are 10-3 favourites over Sydney. BKB is the only credentialled MAFL tipster predicting a Swans victory. ELO, though tipping with the majority, has the Lions winning by just a point, making this its Game of the Round.
• Port Adelaide are 8-6 favourites over the Roos. Shadow is the only elite tipster with a contrarian view.
• St Kilda are 10-3 favourites over Melbourne. Shadow, once again, finds itself as the lone dissenting voice amongst the tipsters that matter. Chi though is tipping the Saints by just 1 point, making this his Game of the Round.
• Collingwood are 10-3 favourites over the Dogs. ELO and Shadow are both tipping a Dogs victory.

BKB aside, the best tipping performance of any heuristic tipster over the past 12 seasons is RYL's 124 last year. Silhouette needs 6 from 8 to equal this mark, and 6.5 or more to break it.

Line Betting
On Line Betting this week, Chi and ELO differ more often than they agree:

• Chi is on Richmond, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Carlton, Sydney, Kangaroos, Melbourne and Collingwood.
• ELO is on Richmond, Geelong, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Brisbane, Kangaroos, St Kilda and Western Bulldogs.

Simulating The Last Round

I was curious, as I imagine were many of you but to a less obsessive extent, to understand how next weekend's results will affect the make up and ordering of the final 8.

So, in a fashion similar to that which I used last week, I simulated the last round of the competition, this time using the opening head-to-head TAB Sportsbet markets to set the win probabilities for each game.

The simulation results gave me estimated probabilities for each team's possible final ladder positions.

All that was left for me to do then was to write up the set of match results that would produce each particular finishing ladder position for each team. Which, I admit, sounds like a simple task. After all, it's only one round's results, so how hard could it be?

I'll simply say this: harder than it looked.

Anyway, here's the table with the detail:

(The column headed "Required Results" was the doozy to write up. I'm about 90% confident that this column is correct, but I'll be delirious to hear from you if you think you've found an error.)

A Return To Profit For Most

This weekend, apparently the Lions and the Saints thought it'd make for more entertaining football viewing if they were to spot their opponents a bit of a start, 47 points in the case of the Lions and 32 points in the case of the Saints.

Many Investors had a financial interest in both these teams - in the case of the Lions, with the additional challenge of giving 33.5 points start - and no doubt found this fox-and-hound approach somewhat alarming. While the Lions did, indeed, metaphorically catch the fox, the Saints did not, an entirely unsatisfactory turn of events when you're wagering on short-priced hounds.

Still, in the end, all Investors except MIN#017 did make profits for the weekend, ranging from 3.1% to 3.9% and including 3.3% for those with the Recommended Portfolio. MIN#017 suffered a 3.8% loss.

For the season, the Recommended Portfolio is up about 13%, MIN#001 is up 18.5%, MIN#015 is up almost 16%, and MIN#017 is up over 31%, so you'd struggle at this point to be an unhappy Investor.

Atypically, Chi-squared recorded the weekend's best return amongst the Funds, up almost 9% on a solitary successful wager on Freo. Next best was Hope, also up almost 9% on 2 successful wagers from 2 outlays. Line Redux and Prudence also made profits, Line Redux up 4% on 2 wins from 3, and Prudence up a little under 1% on 5 successful wagers from 6.

New Heritage was the only Fund to make a loss. It dropped 3.8% on 5 successful wagers from 7, the two losses attributable to Essendon and the Saints.

With 5 favourites and an equal favourite saluting the judge this weekend, tipsters generally fared well, the best of them being Shadow, Chi and HSH, each of which scored 6 from 8.

Silhouette still leads, now on 118 from 168 (70%), three ahead of CTL on 115 (69%) and one more ahead of BKB on 114 (68%).

Five tipsters remain in positive territory on level-stake, Home Team only, start at Round 6 wagering.

On Line Betting, Chi managed just 3 from 8 and ELO just 4 from 8.

And the Last Shall be First (At Least Occasionally)

So far we've learned that handicap-adjusted margins appear to be normally distributed with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 37.7 points. That means that the unadjusted margin - from the favourite's viewpoint - will be normally distributed with a mean equal to minus the handicap and a standard deviation of 37.7 points. So, if we want to simulate the result of a single game we can generate a random Normal deviate (surely a statistical contradiction in terms) with this mean and standard deviation.

Just Say No to Surprisals

Stakes at Stake

This week, Investors are hoping for a round almost bereft of upsets, save for wishing for a minor upset on Friday night in the shape of the Dogs outbarking the Cats.

The New Heritage Fund has waited until Round 21 to record its highest level of aggregate Funds at risk for the season: about 70% at risk on 7 wagers, the largest being 13.2% on the Saints at $1.05, and the riskiest 4% on the Dogs at $2.25.

Prudence has also lashed out this week, dropping a little under one-third of the Fund on 6 wagers. Its largest is 6.1% on Carlton at $1.08 and its riskest is 2.8%, also on the Dogs. Hope has just 2 wagers for the round totalling about 8% of the Fund, the largest and riskiest being 4.6% on the Dogs, while Chi-Squared's sole wager - also, of necessity, its largest and riskiest - is 10.4% on Fremantle at $1.85.

Line Redux has 3 wagers for the week totalling 15% of the Fund. One wager is on a team receiving start (the Dogs) and the other two are on teams giving start (Adelaide and Brisbane).

Ready Reckoner

In total, for everyone except MIN#017, these wagers represent the second-largest aggregate wagering for a single round this season, trailing only the profligacy of Round 16. For MIN#007, this round's wagers are, in fact, the season's apogee (or, perhaps, the nadir, depending on your viewpoint). There's some comfort though in the fact that most of the week's wagers are on favourites.

Here's the week's Ready Reckoner:

For most Investors then, the weekend's key games are, in order, the Dogs versus the Cats, the Lions versus Port, and the Crows versus the Eagles.

Tipping

On tipping, we have:

• Geelong 9-4 favourites over the Dogs. Amongst the Top 5 MAFL tipsters only Shadow is siding with the Dogs. ELO and Chi are both tipping the Cats, though each only by 1 point, making this, for both, the Game of the Round.
• Carlton 12-1 favourites over Melbourne. Only EI I is tipping the upset.
• Adelaide 11-2 favourites over West Coast with, once again, the Top 5 tipsters unanimously on the favourite.
• Brisbane unanimous favourites over Port Adelaide.
• Hawthorn 9-4 favourites over Richmond. Again, the Top 5 tipsters are backing the favourite.
• St Kilda unanimous favourites over the Roos.
• Collingwood unanimous favourites over the Swans.
• Essendon 9-4 favourites over Fremantle. With the teams in this contest equal favourites as at noon on Wednesday, BKB sides with CTL for this game and therefore tips Essendon, again making all Top 5 tipsters unanimous for this game.

Line Betting

On Line Betting this week, Chi and ELO differ on 3 games:

• Chi is tipping the Dogs, Melbourne, Eagles, Port, Richmond, the Roos, Sydney and Essendon
• ELO is tipping the Dogs, Carlton, Eagles, Port, Richmond, St Kilda, Collingwood and Essendon

Simulating What's Left of the Season

We've just 2 rounds to go now until teams start creating the history that fans will remember - fondly or otherwise - and neither the top 4 nor the top 8 positions are all locked in. Surely the practical science of statistics can help us to determine the chances for each team that is still in the running.

To simulate the possible outcomes for the season's remaining games we need to:

* Estimate the probability of victory for each team and each game

* Use these probabilities to simulate the outcome of all remaining games

* Repeat these simulations a large number of times and aggregate the data about where teams finish in each simulation

(For anyone who's curious, in the second step I use the fact that I've determined empirically - as chronicled over on MAFL Stats - that there's a direct link between a team's probability of victory and the handicap it can expect to receive on line betting, and that handicap-adjusted margins seem to roughly follow a Normal distribution with a mean on 0 and a standard deviation of 37.7 points.)

I've completed the steps above using 3 different sets of probabilities, as set down in the table below:

The three scenarios are labelled Base Case, Stronger Favourites and Weaker Favourites, with the probabilities for the first 8 games in each scenario based on the opening head-to-head market prices on TAB Sportsbet and the remaining probabilities set to be broadly consistently with the scenario name.

So, for example, in the Base Case scenario, West Coast are slight favourites over Richmond in Round 22, as they have an assigned probability of 55% (ie 0.55). This rises to 65% in the Stronger Favourites scenario and 50% - that is, equal favouritism - in the Weaker Favourites scenario.

Okay, now to the interesting part: what outcomes do we get for each of these scenarios?

Here's the summary detail for each team of the probability of Top 4 and Top 8 finishes and the most likely ladder position under each of the scenarios:

Across the scenarios, we find that:

* The Saints and the Cats almost always finish 1st and 2nd, in that order. Looking at the actual simulation results (not shown here), in a tiny number of instances - less than 1 time in 100,000 - the Saints and the Cats swap places, but not often enough for this to be considered a serious possibility. So, the Saints' most likely finish is 1st and the Cats' is 2nd, both with probabilities close to 100%.

* Collingwood finishes in the top 4 in all but about 1-2% of the simulations, regardless of the scenario. The more detailed simulation results reveal that Collingwood finishes 3rd about 75-85% of the time, 4th 10-20% of the time, and 5th about 1-2% of the time. Their most likely finish is 3rd.

* The Western Bulldogs finish in the Top 4 about 56% of the time under the Stronger Favourites scenario and 70% of the time under the Weaker Favourites scenario. They always finish in the Top 8 under any scenario. They could finish anywhere from 3rd (with probability ranging from 15 to 25%) to 7th, though a finish this low is very unlikely. Their most likely finish is 4th, for which the probability is about 40-45%.

* Carlton finishes in the Top 4 about 17% of the time under the Weaker Favourites scenario and 32% of the time under the Stronger Favourites scenario. They too always finish in the Top 8 regardless of scenario. They could finish as high as 3rd, though this is very unlikely (probability less than 1%), or as low as 7th (with probability around 20%). Their most likely finish is 5th, for which the probability is about 35%.

* Adelaide is another team that always makes the Top 8 under any scenario. They also make the Top 4 about 10% of the time under any scenario. They could finish as high as 3rd, though this is very unlikely for them, or as low as 7th (with probability of 30-50% depending on scenario), which is their most likely finish.

* Brisbane Lions are also a simulated certainty to make the Top 8, but they've only a 2-3% chance of making the Top 4. Their best possible finish is 4th and their worst is 8th (with only about a 1% probability). Their most likely finish is 6th or 7th depending on the scenario, and the combined probability for such these two positions is about 70-80%.

* Essendon are no chance for a Top 4 spot and a 72-78% chance of a Top 8 spot, depending on the scenario. Their best possible finish is 7th and their worst is 11th. Both have associated probabilities of around 1%. Their most likely finish is 8th, for which the probability is 70-80%.

* Port Adelaide are also no chance for a Top 4 spot, but are a 13% chance of a Top 8 spot, regardless of the scenario. Their best possible finish is 8th, and their worst is 12th, though this carries only a 1% probability. Their most likely finish is 9th, for which the probability is 45-65%, depending on the scenario.

* Sydney are also no chance for a Top 4 spot and virtually no chance for a Top 8 spot. The probability of them making the 8 ranges between about 0.5% to 1.5% depending on the scenario. Their best possible finish is 8th, and their worst is 12th, with a probability of 15-30%. Their most likely finish is 11th, for which the probability is about 40%.

* Hawthorn are another team with no chance for a Top 4 spot, but the probability of them making the 8 ranges between about 8% and 14% depending on the scenario. Their best possible finish is 8th, and their worst is 12th, with a probability of 10-15%. Their most likely finish is 10th, for which the probability is about 30-35%.

No other team finished in the Top 8 in any of the simulations for any of the scenarios.

All of which means that, if you believe the probabilities I've used for the scenarios, that:

* For the Top 4, the Dogs are a good bet at $1.80, Carlton at $6, Adelaide at $10, and the Lions at $50

* For the Top 8, Essendon are a good bet at $1.50, Port at $8, Sydney at $250, and Hawthorn at $12.50

The Dees are a 90-95% chance for the Spoon, though the Roos, Richmond and Fremantle all have non-zero probability of finishing last. Fremantle is a 5-10% chance, while the Roos and the Tigers both have probabilities less than 0.5% under any scenario.

Which is probably why, on TAB Sportsbet, there is no longer a Spoon market.

I Don't Like Saturdays

Well that hurt a bit.

Of the 20 bets that those with the Recommended Portfolio had in play just 8 were successful. Three of those winning bets came from New Heritage, but its 2 losing bets were enough to push it, like every other Fund, into the red for the weekend. It finished down a little over 2% on the weekend's indulgences. Prudence had 2 more of the winning bets, but also 2 more of the losers, which saw it drop by a touch under 2% for the weekend.

Amongst the other Funds, Hope had just 1 winner from 4 bets and dropped about 7%. Chi-squared registered an identical 1 from 4 performance, but Chi's proclivity for large wagers turned this into a 22% decline for the Fund.

Finally, Line Redux managed just 1 winner from 3 bets and dropped 5.5%.

All told, those with the Recommended Portfolio dropped about 7.5% on the weekend. MIN #001 and MIN # 015 lost similar amounts, and MIN #017 lost a tick over 2%.

These results could have been considerably worse but for a profitable Sunday's wagering. It struck me that Sundays had - or so I thought - often been kind to us this year. Which, inevitably, led to some analysis and the following table:

As you can see, Sundays have indeed been very lucrative for the Recommended Portfolio. It has made money on 12 of the 17 Sundays on which it's had wagers, producing a net profit across all those Sundays of almost 30%. In contrast, Saturdays have been unprofitable 11 times out of 19, and unprofitable in total, due entirely to the 15% losses that have been experienced over the previous 2 rounds.

In fact - as the table shows - the Saturday just gone was the worst single day's wagering the Recommended Portfolio has endured this season.

On tipping, CTL and ELO had the best rounds, scoring 6 from 8. This pushed CTL into outright 2nd for the season with 110 from 160 (69%), three tips behind Silhouette on 113 (71%) and 1 tip ahead of BKB on 109 (68%). Five tipsters remain profitable on level-stake home team only wagering commencing in Round 6. (A sixth, RYL, is virtually at breakeven.)

Finally, on Line Betting, Chi scored 3 from 8 and ELO 4 from 8, leaving ELO showing a profit and Chi a loss for the season.

The Tradition Continues

Stakes at Stake
There's just no rest if you're a MAFL Investor.

For those with the Recommended Portfolio we've another 20 wagers this weekend, covering all but the Tigers v Pies game on Saturday. The most profligate Fund is the Chi-squared Fund, which has 4 wagers totalling a smidge under half the Fund, the largest and riskiest of which being 15.2% of the Fund on the Swans at $2.55 facing the Cats. Two other wagers are equally brow-raising and are sized around the 12% mark and on teams priced at $2 or a little higher. This dog shows no fear/sense (delete whichever isn't applicable).

Next most profligate is the New Heritage Fund, which has 5 wagers totalling almost one-third of the Fund, the largest being 11% on West Coast at $1.36 and the riskiest 4.8% on Hawthorn at $2.15. Hope comes next, with 4 wagers totalling around 16% of the Fund, the largest and riskiest 5.1% on Sydney at $2.55.Then follows the Line Redux Fund, with three wagers each at 5% of the Fund, 2 on underdogs and 1 on a favourite. (Two line markets are yet to be posted, but they'll both probably be the home team +6.5 points which won't be enough to entice a flutter.)

Finally, Prudence is this week's spendthrift - such things being relative - having 4 wagers totalling only 13% of the Fund, the largest 3.5% on the Eagles and the riskiest 3% on Melbourne at $2.05.

In truth, by just about any measure, the weekend's fare is not especially scary. Had last year's Heritage Fund still been active, who knows what it might have outlayed on the Tigers at home at $6.25 or the Dons at home at $6.50.

Ready Reckoner
So, to the week's Ready Reckoner:



The Melbourne v Freo, Lions v Dogs, and Sydney v Geelong clashes are then the ones that matter most to all Investors, except MIN #017, who cares only about the first two of those games.

Tipping
We have no games this week for which the tipsters are unanimous and 7 games for which there is at least 3 tipsters in the minority camp.

We have:
* Adelaide 10-3 favourites over the Hawks. Both Chi and ELO are tipping the Crows but both by sufficiently narrow margins to make this their Game of the Round. Amongst MAFL's top 5 tipsters only Shadow is tipping the Hawks.
* Collingwood 10-3 favourites over the Tigers. None of the top tipsters are on the Richmond.
* The Roos 7-6 favourites over the Eagles, though BKB, ELO and CTL are all on West Coast.
* The Lions 8-5 favourites over the Dogs, with ELO, CTL and Silhouette supporting the Dogs.
* Geelong 7-6 favourites over the Swans. Amongst the top tipsters only Shadow is tipping the Swans.
* Fremantle 9-4 favourites over the Dees, with Shadow and Silhouette tipping Melbourne.
* Carlton 10-3 favourites over Port. Only Silhouette are supporting Port from amongst the top tipsters.
* St Kilda 12-1 favourites Essendon. HSH is the only tipster hoping for a Dons victory.

Line Betting
On Line Betting:
* Chi is tipping: Hawthorn, Richmond, Kangaroos, Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Essendon
* ELO is tipping: Hawthorn, Richmond, Kangaroos, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Melbourne, Carlton, Essendon

(Update at 7:00pm on Thursday: the line markets for the Melbourne v Freo and Port v Carlton games have now been posted and, despite Melbourne receiving a little more start than I expected, we've no interest in either game, from a line betting perspective at least.)

And Then There Were Eleven ...

Well last weekend's results certainly altered the finals landscape, leaving all of the teams currently in ladder positions 1 through 11 with legitimate dreams of playing in September and all of the teams in positions 1 through 7 with hopes for a top 4 finish and the double chance.

With the aid of the latest ELO projections, let's take a look at what's left for the teams in contention.

St Kilda have probably the easiest run home of all the teams in the competition. They face 9th placed Essendon away (hence the '9', the 'Ess' and the 'A' in the entry for St Kilda for Round 20, which is coloured green because ELO predicts the Saints will win this game), 13th placed Kangaroos at home, and then last placed Melbourne away. So, give them three wins and 1st place, with only the Dons as a realistic threat to a 22 and 0 home-and-away season.

Geelong have a slightly more challenging finish, starting with faint-hope finalists Sydney away this weekend, followed by the Dogs away, and then Fremantle at home. They should win all three of these games; regardless, they finish 2nd.

Collingwood face the in-form but out-of-contention Richmond this weekend, before matching up with the Swans in a game that'll matter much more to the Swans if they've knocked off the Cats in Round 20. In the final round the Pies take on the Dogs, but by that point they will most likely have secured 3rd place.

The Western Bulldogs have an horrendous last 3 weeks of the home-and-away season comprising contests with teams no lower than 5th on the ladder. First up is an away game with the Lions, then a home game against the Cats, and, finally, another home game, this one against the Pies. ELO has them winning 2 of these 3 contests and therefore securing 4th spot on percentages, but it's easy to see them dropping another 1 or even 2 of these games and missing a top 4 spot.

Carlton have what could be described as an awkward finish to the season, including as it does two teams that are in finals contention: Port Adelaide, who they play away this week, and Adelaide, who they play at home in the final round. In the middle they have the 4-point insurance that comes from playing the Dees. ELO has the Blues winning 3 and they should at least manage 2, making them a possible top 4 finisher.

Adelaide also have an awkward finish, starting with the 'surprised to still be in it' Hawks away this weekend, followed by the Eagles at home, and rounding out with a tricky away contest against the Blues. ELO's credited them with 2 wins, though you could make a good case for 1 or for 3 wins. The Crows should comfortably make the 8 and might yet surprise and jag a top 4 spot, but I'd treat this as unlikely.

If awkwardity is quantifiable (or, indeed, even a word) then the Brisbane Lions have more of it in their run home than any other team. This weekend they face the Dogs at home, then Port again at home, and, lastly, Sydney away, who might still have a sniff at that point but probably won't. ELO's giving the Lions just 1 win from that lot, but 2 is conceivable, even 3 if the gods of oblate spheroids are smiling on them. They'll make the 8 but almost certainly not the top 4.

Hawthorn can, amazingly, lose again this week - to the Crows at home - but still sneak into the finals with back-to-back wins against Richmond away and Essendon at home to complete a 10-12 season and pip Port on percentages. One possibility is that the Hawks will face the Dons in Round 22 with a place in the finals at stake for both of them.

Port Adelaide could also slip into the 8 with just 40 points and having lost 2 of their last 3 games. They face Carlton at home this week, then the Lions away and the Roos at home. If they can win 2 of these then the Hawks will need to win all 3 of theirs to deny Port a finals berth.

Essendon will probably finish just 1 win short of the finals. They play Saints at home this week, then Freo away and then the Hawks also away. It might, as I noted above, all come down to the Round 22 clash with the Hawks.

Sydney have the faintest of finals hopes, but would need to topple the Cats at home, Collingwood away, and then the Lions at home to realise that dream. Frankly I think I'm more likely to win Lotto - and I don't even buy tickets.

For the rest of the teams it's all about draft picks and dealing with tanking speculation.

Bitten By the Dogs

Well, 22 tall and athletic Dogs wearing Red, White and Blue guernseys and pushing for a top 4 spot dug the hole on Saturday, and 1 short and stocky white dog wearing nothing but a green collar just about filled it in on Sunday evening - with a little help mostly from Hope.

At least, that was the story for most Investors this weekend. Investors with the Recommended Portfolio wound up losing 1.4% and other Investors lost amounts ranging from 0.4% to 9.3%. MIN #002 was the only Investor to record a profit, jumping 7% courtesy of the Hope Funds' impeccable 2 from 2 record.

Other Funds were less successful than Hope, though Chi-squared did also eke out a profit, rising just over 4c on 2 wins from 4 bets. New Heritage dropped over 9c also on 2 wins from 4 bets, Prudence dropped 5c on 2 wins from 5 bets, and Line Redux dropped 1c on 2 wins from 4 bets. All told the Funds won just 10 bets from 19, so dropping a percent or two is probably not such a bad result, especially when you consider that 3 of those 'winning' bets were on the drawn Essendon v Lions game.

What generally hurt the majority of Funds this weekend was the unlikelihood of many of the results. Only 3 favourites won and another only drew, leading to the season's most unpredictable set of results, as measured by surprisals.

The table below lists the average outcome surprisals per game for each of the rounds this season alongside which I've shown the returns recorded for each of the Funds.

At the foot of the table I've calculated the correlation between the average outcome surprisals and the Fund returns for each round. The negative correlations on the left show that the New Heritage and Prudence Funds have prospered when results have been most predictable and surprisals have therefore been low, and the positive correlations on the right show that the Hope, Chi-squared and Line Redux Funds have prospered when results have been least predictable and surprisals have therefore been high.

The latest round was a perfect example of this phenomenon. The average outcome surprisals per game was a season-high 1.42 bits, the Hope and Chi-squared Funds made profits, the Line Redux Fund almost broke even, and the New Heritage and Prudence Funds made losses.

(For information on team-by-team outcome and margin surprisals visit MAFL Stats.)

Unpredictability also affected the MAFL tipsters' predictive accuracy. The round's best performance was 4.5 from 8 as was recorded by Shadow, CTL and STM I. The worst was just 1.5 from 8 and was recorded by STM II.

Silhouette now leads our tipping competition on 108 from 152 (71%), ahead of Shadow, CTL and BKB, all on 104 from 152 (68%).

Shadow, Silhouette and STM II remain strongly in profit on level-stake wagering on their head-to-head tips, whether you start counting from Round 1 or from Round 6.

Though ELO managed just 3.5 from 8 on head-to-head tipping, it bagged a perfect 8 from 8 on line betting, moving it to 85 from 152 for the season (56%), a record that would have yielded +8.22 units from level-stake wagering. Chi correctly predicted only 4 from 8 on line betting.

Exceptional line betting generally results from exceptional margin prediction and this is indeed how you'd describe ELO's margin prediction performance this season. Its Mean Absolute Prediction Error is now just 28 points per game and its Median Absolute Prediction Error is 22.5 points per game.

In comparison, Chi's Mean APE is 29.7 points per game and his Median APE is 26 points per game. More relevantly, BKB, always the benchmark, has a 27.8 points per game Mean APE and a 23.5 points per game Median APE.

So, ELO is just 0.2 points per game behind BKB on Mean APE and is a full 1 point per game ahead of BKB on Median APE.

Another Roll of the Dice

Bet or Bank?

There's a famous line by somebody that "the dice have no memory", an allusion to the startlingly obvious fact that inanimate objects - spotted or otherwise - are bereft of the necessary cerebral capacity to recall what they did last, and are therefore unable to take account of their previous behaviour when they 'decide' (which they don't do either) what to do next.

As the Alzheimic dice, so the Funds.

Clearly, none of the Funds has spent any time reflecting on last week's glory and thought to itself "Might have a quiet weekend and make that Sportsbet bookie sweat a bit", nor have any of them suddenly become more concerned about the possibility of late-season tanking, which are reasonable thoughts and sentiments that I'm sure more than one Investor has entertained this week.

With this in mind I decided to review how the various Fund algorithms would have performed had we been using them over the closing rounds of previous seasons. This analysis shows that the Funds have generally performed fairly well from this point in the season onwards, rarely losing, often doing just a little better than breakeven, and occasionally piling on the percentage gains. Then again, football results have no memory either ...

Anyway, if you're at all keen to take a few weekends off from wagering - if nothing else so that you can start enjoying games again - please let me know and we can sort out a strategy for you for the remainder of the season.

Stakes at Stake

Investors in the Recommended Portfolio have 19 wagers to shepherd this weekend, covering all but the Friday-night game yet again.

New Heritage has outlayed cash on 4 teams totaling about 21% of the Fund. The largest wager is 13.3% on the Dogs who are again at an apparently backable unbackable $1.04 this weekend. This Fund's highest-priced wager is 0.7% on Melbourne at $3.15. Those with the Recommended Portfolio and MIN#015 would prefer this bet to lose, however, as they also have a head-to-head bet on the Roos and will fare better if the Dees go down. MIN#001 and MIN#017, in contrast, want the Dees to win, and MIN#002 cares not for the outcome. So, this is a contest where I can't hope to make everybody happy.

Prudence has identified 5 gold-plated opportunities totalling just 15% of the Fund. Its largest outlay is 6% on the Dogs and its riskiest is 2.3% on Fremantle at $2.35.

Hope has 2 wagers both in the 4.6% to 4.8% and the largest - 4.8% on Fremantle - is also the riskiest.

Chi-squared, exhibiting perhaps the most Alzheimic behaviour of all, has splashed out again with 4 wagers totalling 45% of the Fund, including 14.3% on Fremantle (at $2.35) and 13.8% on Essendon at $2.25, in what appears to be a quest to achieve profitability or, like some of the MAFL Small Cap Mining Stocks, to go broke trying.

Line Redux has plumped for 4 wagers, each sized 5% as is customary, 3 of them on underdogs and the other on a favourite. The Line Redux Fund has been in fine form of recent weeks, landing 15 of 22 wagers across the last 6 rounds. Unfortunately this performance back-ended a 14 from 32 start to the season, though it has been enough to nudge the Line Redux Fund into its highest level of profitability since Round 4.

(Two line markets are yet to be posted - those for the Richmond v Sydney and the Kangaroos v Melbourne clashes - but I'm not expecting we'll have a wager in either. As usual, I'll confirm this once the markets are posted.)

Ready Reckoner

Here's what all the wagering means for your Portfolio:

Once again this weekend, Investors care deeply about the fate of Port, though now the guernsey's on the other back (or something like that), since this week we want Fremantle to prevail over the Power. What's driving this interest is the fact that every Fund has a wager on Fremantle, a situation from which Investors are 3 from 4 this season, missing out only when the Swans went down to Essendon in Round 15.

The Essendon v Brisbane Lions and the Dogs v Eagles matchups are also of considerable interest to most Investors.

Tipping

This week there's only one unanimous favourite amongst the MAFL tipsters.

We have:

* Geelong 9-4 favourites over Carlton, with only Shadow supporting the Blues from amongst the MAFL Top 6 tipsters.

* The Dogs unanimous favourites over the Eagles.

* St Kilda 12-1 favourites over Hawthorn. Only HSH is tipping the upset, though Chi has the Saints winning by just a point and so has this as his Game of the Round.

* The Lions 10-3 favourites over Essendon. None of the MAFL Top 6 are tipping the Dons.

* Adelaide 8-5 favourites over Collingwood. None of the MAFL Top 6 are tipping the Pies, though ELO has the Crows emerging victorious by just 3 points, making this one of its two Games of the Round.

* The Roos 11-2 favourites over the Dees, with only STM II a credentialled tipper opting for the current Spooners.

* Richmond 9-4 favourites over Sydney, though Sydney has ELO, CTL, Shadow and Silhouette all tipping the upset. ELO has the Swans winning by just 3 points, making this its second Game of the Round.

* Port Adelaide 10-3 favourites over Fremantle, with none of the Freo support coming from the Top 6 MAFL Tipsters.

Four matches will, therefore, potentially affect the rankings amongst the top 6 tipsters: Geelong v Carlton, Adelaide v Collingwood, Kangaroos v Melbourne, and Richmond v Sydney.

Line Betting

This week on Line Betting:

* Chi's on Carlton, West Coast, Hawthorn, Essendon, Adelaide, Melbourne (TBC), Richmond (TBC) and Fremantle

* ELO's on Carlton, West Coast, St Kilda, Essendon, Collingwood, Kangaroos (TBC), Sydney (TBC) and Fremantle

For the season, Chi's tipped 71 from 144 (49%) and would have made a 9.48 unit loss on level-stake line betting. ELO's tipped 77 from 144 (53%) and would have made a 1.22 unit profit on level-stake line betting.

(Update at 8pm Thursday: as expected, no bets on the Richmond/Sydney or Kangaroos/Melbourne games. A new download is available with the line market details for these games. Note also that the Hawks are now favourites over the Saints on TAB Sportsbet, so much so that we now couldn't secure the same price head-to-head as we did on Wednesday with 15.5 points start. This is due to the major outs for the Saints, viz. Riewoldt, Montagna, Goddard, Hayes and Baker. The Hawks/Saints line market is suspended as I type this, as it has been for the past couple of days, but you can be certain that the Hawks will be priced at a lot less than the $1.90 we have locked in.)

The Ladder's Still Full of Opportunities

The top 8 of the MARS Projected Final Table after Round 18 differs from the current ladder only in that Adelaide and Collingwood trade places. MARS predicts that Adelaide will grab 4th spot on the back of four straight wins over the remainder of the season, skipping them past the Pies, who win only two more, beating Richmond and Sydney but losing to Adelaide and the Dogs.

Under the MARS scenario, 4th place will still be undecided as we move into Round 22.

Here's MARS' current projected final table and the predicted results that will produce it:

The key clash for Adelaide looms as the Round 20 matchup with the Hawks, which MARS has the Crows winning by a point. Assuming that Hawthorn lose in Round 19 to the Saints and beat Richmond and Essendon in Rounds 21 and 22, Hawthorn will need to down the Crows to have a chance at securing 8th spot, knocking Port out of the eight and relegating the Crows to 5th, behind the Pies.

Collingwood might otherwise grab a spot in the top 4 if they defeat the Bulldogs, as might the Lions if they, instead, beat the Dogs.

Essendon are projected to miss the 8 by two games, as MARS forecasts them to lose to the Lions, St Kilda and Hawthorn, securing a solitary victory over a floundering Fremantle in Round 21.

Sydney, though still a mathematical chance to reach 44 points and therefore press for a finals spot, would need to topple Richmond, Geelong, Collingwood and the Lions in successive weeks to do so, which seems about as likely at the moment as the AFL relenting and changing the rules for the draft.

A Round to Savour

For most Investors, a perfect wagering Sunday required that the three underdogs emerge victorious, an outcome which, save for an after-the-siren Tiger goal, would have transpired. Regardless, Investors landed the two wagers that really mattered, which saw all of them emerging with hefty portfolio increases.

In all, only 2 of 17 bets were unsuccessful: Prudence's wager on the Tigers and Line Redux's on Geelong. New Heritage landed 4 from 4 to jump by 8%, Prudence snagged 4 from 5 to rise by about the same amount, Hope managed 2 from 2 to climb by 22%, Chi-squared (at last!) bagged 1 from 1 to climb by 26%, and Line Redux scored 4 from 5 to rise by 13%.

All of which saw the Recommended Portfolio rise by 14.5%, leaving it up by 18.5% on the season, and other Portfolios rise by between 8% and 22% to leave them all up by amounts ranging from 21% to 53%. That's quite a round.

On tipping, Chi had the best of it, picking 7 from 8 to take him to 95.5 from 144 (66%) for the season. Silhouette managed 6 and still leads the pack, now on 104.5 from 144 (73%), 3 tips ahead of BKB on 101.5 (71%), and 2 more tips ahead of CTL and Shadow on 99.5 (69%).

The generally solid tipping performance of all our tipsters now sees 8 of them in black ink on level stake, start at Round 6, home team only wagering.

On line betting, Chi and ELO both fared well, correctly predicting 6 of the 8 winners.

One feature of this weekend's football was the regularity with which teams recording more scoring shots still contrived to lose. Three teams - the Roos, Adelaide and Hawthorn - all managed that achievement this weekend. Last weekend, Hawthorn, West Coast and Melbourne suffered the same fate, and Essendon also went down to the Tigers having recorded the same number of scoring shots. It's time for a few teams to spend a bit more time practising set shots, I reckon.