Final Ladder Positions: Simulations After Round 19

Two of the markets for final ladder positions are no longer being offered by TAB Sportsbet. Collingwood's victory over the Cats has, it seems, all but determined the destination of the minor premiership, and the Lions' last-gasp win over the Eagles has done something similar for the Spoon.

MAFL 2010 : Round 19 Results

The only conclusion that a reasonable person could reach is that the Recommended Portfolio, concerned about causing undue alarm, has determined the best way to prepare the TAB Sportsbet bookie for its eventual profitability is to do so very, very slowly.

MAFL 2010 : Round 19

It's a strange round indeed - and a pivotal one - that footy fans can look forward to this weekend.

Strange because of the number of games where the outcome appears to be a near coin-toss - a point that we'll come back to a little later in this blog - but not at all strange in terms of the activity level of the MAFL Funds.

Thank the Crows and Blame the Saints

Which teams do you think have generated the most profit for each Fund, and which have inflicted the greatest losses?

When I've looked at this question in the past I've tended to take the most obvious approach to the analysis whereby I've calculated for each team the Return on Net Funds that has resulted from wagers on that. In short, what I've done is to determine how many cents each team has added to or subtracted from the value of a particular Fund as a result of the wagering returns it has directly provided.

Final Ladder Positions: Simulations After Round 18

The weekend results for St Kilda, Fremantle, Melbourne, Richmond and West Coast were the ones that most reshaped the various ladder position markets.

MAFL 2010 : Team Dashboard for Round 18

The MAFL Team Dashboard for Round 18 is below.

Here are a few statistical highlights for each team chosen because the statistic illuminates sustained performance is at the extremes or anomalous performance relative to a team's ladder position:

Collingwood

• Kicked 2nd most goals (278)
• Kicked most behinds (263)
• Have the 2nd best percentage (142.0)
• Ranked 12th on opponent conversion rate (53.5%)
• Ranked 9th on Q4 performances (44% of quarters won, 101 percentage)

Geelong

• Kicked most goals (299) and most total points (2,030)
• Only team to have kicked 2,000 points in the season
• Have the best percentage (146.3)
• Ranked 1st or 2nd for performances in every match quarter

St Kilda

• Kicked fewest goals of any team in the top 8 (222)
• Conceded fewest goals of any team in the competition (191, level with the Dogs) and fewest total points (1,312)
• Ranked 13th on scoring shots per game (22.6) but 1st on opponent scoring shots per game (19.8)
• Ranked 14th on Q2 performances (33% of quarters won, 89 percentage) and 1st on Q4 performances (69% of quarters won, 154 percentage)

Western Bulldogs

• Conceded fewest goals of any team (191, level with the Saints) and 2nd fewest total points (1,328)
• Ranked 1st on conversion rate (56.4%)
• Ranked 1st on 'team most difficult to comment about' metric (aeq with the Roos - 2 comments ... well, now 3)

Fremantle

• Conceded the most goals of any team in the top 8 (237)
• Ranked 3rd on scoring shots per game (28.3)
• Ranked 13th on opponent conversion rate (53.7%)
• Ranked 9th on Q3 performances (47% of quarters won, 104 percentage)

Hawthorn

• Kicked only 3 more goals than behinds (230 vs 227)
• Ranked 15th on conversion rate (50.3%) but 3rd on opponent conversion rate (50.7%)
• Ranking of match quarter performances declines from earlier to later quarters: ranked 3rd for Q1 performances and 15th for Q4 performances

Carlton

• Conceded most behinds of any team in the top 8 (219) and 2nd most goals (235)
• Worst record for 2nd half of season of any team in the top 8 (2-5)
• Have a better than 100 percentage for Q3 and Q4 and a worse than 100 percentage for Q1 and Q2

Sydney

• Worst percentage of any team in the top 8 (101.2)
• Ranked 5th on opponent scoring shots per game (23.5)
• Ranked 12th on Q3 performances (36% of quarters won, 75 percentage) and 4th on Q4 performances (67% of quarters won, 123 percentage)

Kangaroos

• Worst percentage of any team in the top 12 (83.3)
• Ranked 15th on opponent conversion rate (56.6%)
• Ranked 1st on 'team most difficult to comment about' metric (aeq with the Dogs)

Melbourne

• Conceded most behinds of any team in the top 13 (247)
• Better record for 2nd half of season than the three teams above them on the ladder
• Ranked 1st on opponent conversion rate (47.1%) and 4th on own conversion rate (54.5%)
• Ranked 14th on scoring shots per game (22.2)
• Ranked 6th on Q3 performances (56% of quarters won, 145 percentage)

Adelaide

• Better record for 2nd half of season than the four teams above them on the ladder
• Worst conversion rate of any team (49.3%)
• Ranked 13th on Q3 performances
• Have lost more than they've won of every match quarter

Essendon

• Kicked the most goals of any team not in the top 8 (237), the most behinds (225) and the most points (1,647)
• Conceded the most goals of any team (280) and the most points (1,889)
• Ranked 5th on scoring shots per game (25.7)
• Ranked last on opponent conversion rate (57.3%)
• Ranked 5th on Q3 performances (58% of quarters won, 100 percentage)

Port Adelaide

• Kicked the 2nd fewest number of goals of any team (201) and the 2nd fewest total points (1,397)
• Ranked 15th on scoring shots per game (22.2)
• Ranked 15th on Q2 performances (33% of quarters won, 79 percentage)

Richmond

• Kicked the fewest goals of any team (195) and the fewest total points (1,361)
• Have the worst percentage of any team (73.7)
• Better record for 2nd half of season than the nine teams above them on the ladder
• Ranked 4th on opponent conversion rate (50.9%)
• Ranked last on scoring shots per game (21.4) and 2nd last on opponent scoring shots per game (28.9)
• Ranked 16th on Q2 performances (28% of quarters won, 76 percentage) and 15th on Q3 performances (28% of quarters won, 67 percentage)

Brisbane Lions

• Only team not to have recorded a win in the 2nd half of the season
• Ranked 6th on opponent conversion rate (51.4%)
• Have the worst Q1 performance of any team (25% of quarters won, 60 percentage)

West Coast

• Kicked within 5 goals of the 7 teams above them on the ladder excluding Essendon
• Conceded the most goals of any team (283) and the most points (1,947)
• Ranked 8th on conversion rate (51.4%) and 9th on opponent conversion rate (53.2%)
• Ranked 7th on Q2 performances (56% of quarters won, 103 percentage), but last on Q3 performances (25% of quarters won, 72 percentage) and Q4 performances (22% of quarters won, 61 percentage)

MAFL 2010 : Round 18 Results

Every Fund returned a profit on the weekend's wagering, leaving the Recommended Portfolio closer to profitability at the end of the round than it's been since it slipped carelessly into unprofitability in Round 8, and inching the portfolios of MIN#002 and MIN#017 just a little closer to daylight too.