MAFL 2010 : Round 12

Is it really the second half of the season already?

Recommended Portfolio holders can look forward to another weekend of cheering for favourites one game and underdogs the next. This week they've one game (Kangaroos v Carlton) in which their interest is solely in the line and not the head-to-head result, and another game in which they've no interest at all (Richmond v West Coast).

In-Running Wagering: What's the Best Strategy?

With services such as Betfair now offering in-running wagering opportunities, the ability to accurately assess a team's chances of victory at any given point in a game is now of considerable commercial value.

Imagine, for example, that your team, who are at home, lead by 18 points at the first change. Would a wager on them at $1.40 be advised?

MAFL 2010 : Team Dashboard for Round 11

Here's the week's MAFL Team Dashboard.

A few things to note in this data:

• Collingwood, despite being placed second on the ladder, have the second-worst opponent conversion rate (56.4%) and a relatively poor record in final terms (which was starkly in evidence on Sunday night)
• Hawthorn are in the eight at least partly because they've prevented their opponents from converting opportunities in front of goal. They're struggling in the second half of games, particularly in final terms where they have a 1-10 record.
• St Kilda, Essendon and Fremantle are all allowing their opponents to convert too many of their opportunities. Essendon's struggles in first and last terms, Fremantle in third terms, and St Kilda in second terms.
• Relative to their respective ladder positions, Melbourne and Richmond are ranked highly on opponent conversion rate.
• Melbourne performs significantly better is third terms.
• Port Adelaide has mastered the art of the whirlwind finish, winning almost two-thirds of the final terms it's played. This hasn't been enough in 6 games out of 11 however.
• The Lions continue to pair lousy first halves with stunning second halves. The round just finished provided an excellent example of this, as the Lions were outscored 10 goals to 5 by the Roos in the first half of their game, before kicking 8 goals to 2 in the second half.
• West Coast performs relatively poorly in second halves.
• The Bulldogs are the best in the league for second terms.

MAFL 2010 : Round 11 Results

Absent an upset victory by either the Tigers or the Eagles - both of which outcomes seemed possible for at least a portion of their respective games - that was just about as good a weekend as Investors with the Recommended Portfolio might have hoped for.

An improbable Dogs victory also tantalised for a few minutes late in the final term on Friday, but that outcome ultimately proved unattainable, leaving the Recommended Portfolio up 2.4c on the weekend and down now just 11.1c on the season.

The portfolio of MIN#017 also finished in the black, though the 8.4c hike has left much still to do to return that Portfolio to parity, languishing as it does still some 37c down on the season. Still, how does one eat an elephant? The conventional answer is: one spoonful at a time.

MIN#002 was the only Investor to suffer losses this week. His portfolio fell 6.3c to 75.2c, a victim of Hope's curiously lacklustre performance so far this season, which has seen it land just 4 of 12 wagers.

In-Running Prediction of the Winner of an AFL Game

I've been planning to create this model for a while.

With it, you can calculate the probability that the home team will eventually prevail given the state of the match at a particular point in the game.

MAFL 2010 : Round 11

Every week I learn a little more about my tolerance for risk.

I feel far more comfortable with an array of wagers that includes the Tigers at $5.50 and West Coast at $6.00 than I did with last week's festival of favourites. Wagering at odds-on prices still feels inordinately Sysyphean to me.

Looking At Team Performance Quarter-By-Quarter

AFL Football - as the cliche goes - is a game of four quarters. The benefit of this arrangement is that AFL scores provide twice as much information about the ebb and flow of each contest as the scores of any other form of football in this country.

With the quarter-by-quarter information alone we can perform some interesting analyses for every team.