The Funds Grow A Little More Discerning

A quieter weekend is in prospect for most Investors as we've just 14 bets in total covering only 6 of the 8 contests. As it's a long weekend, there's a Monday game, but it's not one we have any financial interest in.

Across the weekend, we have:

* New Heritage Fund: 3 wagers for about 35% of the Fund. Each wager is about 11 or 12% of the Fund and they're on teams with prices of $1.18, $1.25 and $1.36, so we'll need all 3 to win if this Fund is to return a profit for the weekend.

* Prudence Fund: 5 wagers for about 16.5% of the Fund. Again Prudence has wagers on the same teams as New Heritage, the largest of these on Port at $1.18. The two additional wagers are both small and they're on the Lions and the Dons.

* Hope Fund: 2 wagers for about 5% of the Fund, the more significant of those on the Dons at $1.80.

* Chi-squared Fund: 2 wagers for around 14.5% of the Fund. The larger - almost 10% of the Fund - is on the Dons.

* Line Redux Fund: 2 wagers for 10% of the Fund, 5% on the Roos receiving 39.5 points start playing the Saints, and another 5% on Hawthorn giving Sydney 15.5 points start.

Here's this week's Ready Reckoner. (Fortunately, none of the New Heritage bets are on the away team this week, so we've no instances of bets on both teams head-to-head.)

So, for most Investors it's the Hawks v Sydney game that represents the largest potential swing in terms of the best-case versus the worst-case outcomes. For those with the Recommended Portfolio - and for MIN#001 and MIN#015 - it's the Essendon v Adelaide game that's next most important.

(Note that there's still one line market to come - that for the Essendon v Adelaide game - but we're unlikely to have a line wager on this game.)

Next, tipping:

* The Dogs are favoured 13-0 over the Tigers.

* The Saints are favoured 12-1 over the Roos, with the only support for the Roos coming from HSH.

* Brisbane are 9-4 favourites over the Blues. Silhouette is the only tipster of note siding with the Blues.

* Port are favoured 12-1 over Freo, with only EI I tipping the Dockers. Chi has Port winning by 6 points making this his Game of the Round.

* Adelaide are 7-6 favourites over the Dons. BKB are on the Dons as is ELO but by only 1 point making this its Game of the Round.

* Hawthorn are favoured 9-4 over Sydney. Sydney has CTL on its side, but the remaining form tipsters are all on the Hawks.

* Geelong are favoured 12-1 over the Eagles. Again, HSH finds itself alone on the underdog.

* Collingwood are favoured 12-1 over the Dees and once more its HSH the lone dissenter.

Finally, on Line Betting:

* Chi's line bets are Richmond, Kangaroos, Carlton, Fremantle, Essendon, Hawthorn, West Coast and Melbourne.

* ELO's line bets are Bulldogs, Kangaroos, Carlton, Fremantle, Essendon, Sydney, Geelong and Melbourne.

ELO Projected Ladder II

The last three weeks has had quite an effect on ELO's projected end of season ladder, as you can see in the table below.

The top 3 positions are unchanged, firmly held by the Cats, Saints and Dogs, but there's significant movement amongst the next 8.

Carlton moves from the fringes of the top 8 into 4th, dethroning the Pies who drop to 6th. The Lions and Sydney - both now projected to win two more games than thought previously - move into the top 8 at the expense of the two Adelaide teams, who both now miss out on a finals spot based on (my proxy of) percentages.

Making the final 8 now requires 11 wins, which is more in keeping with seasons past than the 10 wins that were projected previously. Also, the teams that make up the projected final 8 are the same teams that currently occupy the top 8 teams on the competition ladder.

Positions 11 through 16 are all held by the same teams as in the earlier projections, albeit that there's been some interesting but inconsequential rearrangements. Unrearranged though is Melbourne, now projected to lose all of its remaining games.

Constant Dripping ...

Only now am I becoming accustomed to the attritional manner with which our current wagering strategy accumulates wealth, when and such as it does.

This week, 14 of our 21 wagers were successful, yet this produced only a 4% gain for those Investors with the Recommended Portfolio and so exposed to all 21 of those wagers.

The New Heritage Fund won 5 of 7 bets, taking it to 21 and 8 for the season. Prudence won 4 of 5 to move to 17 and 5 for the season. Hope managed just 1 from 2, taking it to 6 and 7 for the season, while Chi-squared bagged 2 from 3 to move to 5 and 4 for the season. And, finally, Line Redux managed 2 from 4, leaving it at 13 and 15 for the season.

All of which drove net returns to Investors ranging from a 0.6% loss for the Investor with only Hope to a 10.8% gain for the Investor whose portfolio is all in New Heritage. Season-wide, all Investors remain in profit.

(By the way, these returns are a little higher than indicated by the Ready Reckoner I prepared because I used a price of $1.60 for the Bulldogs in the Reckoner when, in fact, we had them at $1.65.)

While I was updating the spreadsheet of match results for the season I was struck once again by the statistical regularity in the relative scoring of winners and losers, even when considered at the relatively low level of a single round. As you can see from the table below, winning teams have scored between 57% and 63% of the goals in any single round, and have racked up between 56% and 59% of the scoring shots. That's a phenomenally narrow range.

Anyway, onto tipping. Silhouette bagged another 7 from 8, a score matched only by STM II. Silhouette and Shadow now lead our tipping competition on 55 from 80, one tip clear of BKB on 54 from 80.

On level-stake, home-team-only wagering, commencing in Round 6, our top 7 tipsters and EI II are all showing profit 

Finally, looking at line betting performances, ELO and Chi managed just 3 from 8 this weekend.

(When you've a moment, take a look at the current ladder. The Bulldogs, in third, are only 2 wins ahead of the Roos, in thirteenth, and 7 teams have a 5 and 5 record. It's shaping up as an extraordinary battle for the bottom 6 places in the top 8.)

Same Again?

We have a record 21 bets this weekend, again including a couple of tiddlers from New Heritage, and again covering all eight contests.

This is the overall story:

* New Heritage Fund: 7 wagers for about 37% of the Fund. The two largest bets are at $1.08 and $1.50, though there is a brave 2.15% wager on the Eagles away to the Blues.

* Prudence Fund: 5 wagers for about 18.5% of the Fund. The Bulldogs, at $1.65, and the Saints, at $1.08, carry the majority of the Funds at risk.

* Hope Fund: 2 wagers for about 11%, including what could only generously be described as a speculative wager on the Dons at $5.75 against the Cats. The other bet is on the Crows at $2.25, facing the Premiers.

* Chi-squared Fund: 3 wagers for around 12.5% of the Fund. The bets include a chunky wad on the Dogs and two smaller wagers on Freo and Collingwood.

* Line Redux Fund: 4 wagers for almost 17% of the Fund, the tiddler being on the Roos +6.5 against the Lions but only at $1.85 on line betting (not, as I was expecting, $2.10).

If you're an Investor, I recognise that, with this level of activity, it's hard to get your head around exactly what a given result will mean for your personal wealth. So, for the first time this season, I've decided to produce a Ready Reckoner for the round, which appears below:

The first block of data pertains to those Investors who have the Recommended Portfolio. The first row of that block provides information about the effect of different outcomes in the Carlton v West Coast game. If Carlton, the Home team for this game, wins head-to-head and on handicap, these Investors will suffer a 0.26% decline in the value of their total portfolio. If, instead, Carlton loses head-to-head (and so, by definition loses on handicap, it being the favoured team and so giving start), these same Investors will enjoy an increase of 0.54% in the value of their total portfolio.

Subsequent rows provide the same information for the round's other games. Subsequent blocks provide the same information for all games for other Investors.

On the far right of each block I've provided one measure of the importance of each game for each Investor, such measure being based on the difference between the best-case and worst-case outcomes. So, for example, the Bulldogs v Swans game is very important to those Investors with the Recommended Portfolio; best case they could make 3.51%, worst case they could drop 5.35%.

Turning next to tips:

* Carlton are favoured 11-2 over the Eagles. Only EI I and EI II are on the Eagles - the last and second last tipsters amongst our cadre.

* The Dogs are favoured 10-3 over Sydney. None of the support for Sydney comes from our top tipsters.

* Brisbane are 7-6 favourites over the Roos, but the Roos can count Shadow amongst their supporters. Both ELO and Chi have this as one of their Games of the Round, though Chi has opted for as many Games of the Round this week as Bruce McAvaney has on his list of "special" athletes.

* St Kilda are the unanimous pick over the Dees.

* Fremantle are, similarly, unanimous tips, in their case over the Tigers. This is, however, another of Chi's 1-point margin games and so another Game of the Round.

* Hawthorn are favoured 7-6 over Adelaide and have BKB, ELO and CTL amongst their supporters. Chi has this game as his third (yes third) Game of the Round; ELO has it as its second Game of the Round.

* Geelong are favoured 10-3 over the Dons. None of the top tipsters are opting for the Dons.

* Collingwood are favoured 10-3 over Port. Amongst Port's backers, the only tipster of note is CTL.

Finally, on Line Betting:

* Chi's line bets are West Coast, Sydney, Kangaroos, Melbourne, Richmond, Adelaide, Essendon and Port Adelaide.

* ELO's line bets are West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Kangaroos, St Kilda, Richmond, Adelaide, Essendon and Port Adelaide.

Everyone's A Winner

It's churlish, I suppose, to quibble about a round in which every Investor made money, but the Hawks' fourth-quarter performance, which turned a spread-covering 47-point lead into a line bet losing 22-point lead, was a desperately disappointing way to finish the weekend.

Regardless, Investors enjoyed net returns ranging from +0.5% to +9.3% leaving most up on the season by between about 1.4% and 5.6% except for MIN#002 who is now up by just over 30%. All of this came on the back of 13 successful wagers from 20, New Heritage bagging 5 from 6, Prudence 3 from 4, Hope 1 from 2, Chi-squared 2 from 3, and Line Redux 2 from 5.

That leaves the New Heritage Fund up about 6% on the season, Prudence up about 1%, Hope up 30%, Chi-squared down 10%, and Line Redux down 13%.

On tipping, Shadow and Silhouette continued to perform, each registering 7 from 8 to out-tip the bookies and, in Shadow's case, to take outright tipping leadership on 49 from 72, or just over 68%.

ELO notched 6 from 8 to stay within 2 tips of BKB. Chi also scored 6 to be 2 tips further back.

Rereading my original note on the heuristic tipsters I discovered that the level-stake strategy I'd found to be profitable was in fact one that commenced in Round 6 (not 7 as I've previously blogged) and that bet only when the tipped team was a true or notional Home team. I've changed the last column of the table in the margin to now track this strategy.

Across the seasons 2006 to 2008, the heuristics that have been most profitable when used with this strategy were RYL, EI II, FTS, CTL, Shadow and Silhouette. At this point in the season all 6 of those strategies are currently profitable, which is particularly surprising for EI II given its sub-standard overall tipping performance.

Looking next at line betting performances, ELO recorded another acceptable performance, gathering 5 from 8 to move to 40 from 72 for the season. Chi, meantime, managed just 3 from 8 to take him to 32 from 72 for the season, preserving his status as a line bettor best used with a contrarian approach (ie bet the other side of whatever he recommends).

Finally, a quick update on average prediction errors. ELO has continued to perform well on this measure and is now at 29.7 points per game for the season, just behind BKB on 29.3. Chi is still within cooee of the magical 30-point mark, though still on the wrong side of it. He's on 31.7 points per game, his record this weekend spoiled mainly by the size of Adelaide's and Sydney's victories.

A quick piece of trivia before I go. St Kilda, in coming from behind at three-quarter time to beat the Lions, were only the 5th team this year to do this. Of the 72 games so far played, 65 (which is 90%) have been won by the team leading at three-quarter time; the other two have been drawn at that stage.

Also, 60 games (or 83%) have been won by the team leading at half-time, and  49 games (68%) have been won by the team leading at quarter time. Clearly it's been a season to be in front.

More Bets, Smaller Outlay

We have twenty bets this weekend, though a few of them come firmly from the why-bother end of the wagering scale. And, once again, the Funds have organised themselves so that we've at least one wager in every game, and the New Heritage Fund has gone contrarian, leaving us with wagers on both sides of the same contest.

Here's a summary of what we have:

* The New Heritage Fund has made 6 wagers this week, though only 3 of them are of any import and these are on teams ranging in price from $1.13 to $1.55. So, all up, a fairly conservative week for this Fund.

* Prudence has found 4 wagers, 3 of them - as has been its wont these past few weeks - on the same team as the New Heritage Fund. The exception is its wager on West Coast in the game where New Heritage fancies the Pies.

* The Hope Fund, chastened it seems by last weekend's 0 from 2, has just 2 bets this weekend, both exceedingly modest and ultra-conservative.

* Chi-squared has followed up last weekend's single bet with a trio this week, the largest about 8% on the Roos at $1.70.

* The Line Redux Fund has recorded its highest level of activity for the season, registering 5 bets, 3 of them on teams giving start and 2 of them on teams receiving start.

So, as is becoming the custom, plenty to keep us occupied in that lot.

(There is still one line market yet to be posted, but I'm expecting it to be the Roos -6.5 in which case we'll have no interest.)

Turning next to tips:

* Geelong are favoured 12-1 over the Dogs, with only Home Sweet Home supporting the Dogs, based on its recognition that this alleged Geelong home game is being played Docklands and so is really a Dogs home game.

* The Roos are favoured 9-4 over Freo, though Chi has the Roos winning by less than a kick and so makes this one of his Games of the Round. None of our top 6 tipsters fancies Freo.

* Carlton are 8-5 favourites over the Crows, with ELO predicting just a 1 point win for the Blues, making this game its Game of the Round. Amongst the top tipsters, Shadow and Silhouette have opted for the Crows.

* West Coast are favoured 9-4 over the cold Pies. Amongst the 4 supporters for the Pies, however, are ELO, Shadow and Silhouette.

* Essendon are favoured 10-3 over the Tigers. Chi has the Dons getting home by 5 points, making this his alternative Game of the Round. All of our best performing tipsters are on the Dons.

* Port Adelaide are favoured 8-5 over Sydney and can count CTL, Shadow, Silhouette and Ride Your Luck amongst their supporters. 

* St Kilda are favoured 11-2 over the Lions, with EI I and EI II the only tipsters sufficiently impressed with the Lions' 36-point win over the Crows last weekend to side with the Lions over the in-form and ladder-leading Saints.

* Hawthorn are favoured 12-1 over the Dees, STM II being the Dees' sole supporter, still buoyed by its successful tip of the Dons back in Round 6 and still hampered by its unwillingness to tip the Hawks since its fateful mis-tip in Round 2.

Finally, on Line Betting:

* Chi's line bets are Western Bulldogs, Fremantle (TBC), Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Melbourne.

* ELO's line bets are Western Bulldogs, Kangaroos (TBC), Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn.

Dude, Where's My Money?

We're now 8 rounds into the season and I'm guessing that some Investors might be curious about which teams and which Funds are responsible for their gains and losses.

The first table looks at the situation by team and by Fund.

The entries in the table reflect the profit or loss attributable to the team whose name appears in the left-hand column. So, for example, Adelaide has been responsible for losing 2.6% of the Funds held by those with the Recommended portfolio, 3% of the Funds held by MIN#001, none of the Funds held by MIN#002, 2.7% of the Funds held by MIN#015, and 7.9% of the Funds held by MIN#017.

Looking down the first column we find that the Eagles have been the source of largest losses for those with the Recommended Portfolio, thereafter followed by the Blues, the Crows and the Tigers. Essendon have provided the largest profits followed by Sydney, Geelong and St Kilda. Teams current in the top 8 have contributed to gains of 8.2% and those outside the top 8 have contributed to losses of 8.9%.

Next we turn to a Fund-by-Fund view. 

New Heritage's net loss of 3.7% is entirely the fault of the Crows, the Blues, the Tigers and the Eagles, whose losses have been offset to a less than full extent by the Lions, the Hawks, the Saints and the Swans.

Prudence has been hurt by the Blues, Tigers and Eagles, and bolstered by the Lions, the Saints and the Swans.

The Hope Fund's profit is almost solely down to the Dons, with smaller contributions coming from Freo and the Roos. The Dees, the Eagles and the Dogs have been the only value-destroyers.

Chi-Squared's had little joy. Freo and the Eagles have both inflicted losses, and the Lions have contributed the only, paltry profit.

Line Redux, after starting the season well, has now dropped into loss, largely due to the Crows, the Pies, the Hawks and the Dogs. Profit has come from the Cats, Port and the Swans.

So, now you know who to blame ...