Three More: It's Getting to be a Habit

The Line Redux Fund has so far this season acted with restraint and discernment. This week we've more evidence of that first characteristic; let's hope we also witness more of the second.

All of which is a cryptic way to introduce the fact that we've three line bets this weekend:

* Brisbane, giving Collingwood 9.5 points start on Friday night at the Gabba

* Sydney, receiving 8.5 points start from Carlton on Saturday afternoon at the SCG

* Hawthorn, giving Port Adelaide 23.5 points start on Saturday at the G

The latter two of these bets represent our 2nd bets on Hawthorn and on Sydney (both of the previous bets were winners). 

Moving next to tipping, we have:

* Unanimous support for the Lions over Collingwood, though ELO has only a 3 point margin, making this its Game of the Round

* Carlton tipped 11-2 over Sydney

* Port Adelaide tipped 9-4 over the Hawks, with the 9 including all the top-ranked tipsters bar BKB

* Unanimous support for St Kilda and the prediction of a blowout by BKB, Chi and ELO

* Geelong tipped 11-2 over Adelaide

* Essendon tipped 9-4 over the Roos, with the 9 once again including all the top-ranked tipsters bar BKB, and Chi tipping the Roos but by only a point, making this his Game of the Round

* Melbourne tipped 7-6 over Richmond, with Easily Impressed II the only top-ranked tipster siding with the Tigers and even then only doing so because they were more lightly flogged last weekend than were the Dees

* The Western Bulldogs tipped 11-2 over West Coast

(Note that we're once again waiting for the line market to go up for one game. I'll include the details in Monday's results.)

From One Year To The Next: Part 1

With Carlton and Essendon currently sitting in the top 8, I got to wondering about the history of teams missing the finals in one year and then making it the next. For this first analysis it made sense to choose the period 1997 to 2008 as this is the time during which we've had the same 16 teams as we do now.

Line Redux Bags another Two from Three

Two more successful line bets from three attempts has the Line Redux Fund now priced at $1.125 and leaves those Investors with Line Redux exposure up by between about 2.2 and 2.5%. Perhaps the best thing about the weekend's performance is that the two winning bets won easily and the losing bet missed out by just a little over a goal.

Investors please note that I've changed the way I'm displaying your portfolio performance (see table at right). Rather than repeating the same number a dozen or so times, I'm now showing a single performance statistic for the Recommended portfolio. If your MIN is not shown separately it's because you have the Recommended portfolio; accordingly, the performance of that portfolio is the performance of your portfolio.

We still have one more week of Line Redux Fund langour before the madness begins when, firstly, the Hope Fund will be unleashed and allowed to fling cash for the first time. I've been tracking the bets that all the currently dormant Funds would have made had they not been in a period of enforced abstinence, and the Hope Fund is one that I'm glad has been kept away from Sportsbet. (The other is Chi-squared.) I'm assuming that this is a 'calibration' period ...

On tipping we have the extraordinary situation whereby BKB trails, albeit only by half a tip. This is down to the sterling performances of Shadow, Silhouette and Short-Term Memory II, each of which bagged 7 from 8 this week (see table at right) missing only the Hawks' win over the Roos. Chi has continued his poor run of tipping and managed just 5 this weekend to leave him tied for last with Home Sweet Home on just 14 from 24.

ELO tipping was acceptable at 6 from 8 but its line betting performance fell away dramatically from last weekend's 7 as it managed just 4 from 8 this weekend, with one of those being Adelaide who were favoured to win on line betting given their 6.5 points start yet even money head-to-head price.

Does Losing Lead to Winning?

I was reading an issue of Chance News last night and came across the article When Losing Leads to Winning. In short, the authors of this journal article found that, in 6,300 or so most recent NCAA basketball games, teams that trailed by 1 point at half-time went on to win more games than they lost. This they attribute to "the motivational effects of being slightly behind".

Naturally, I wondered if the same effect existed for footy.

Round 3 offers another trio

Three line bets again this weekend, giving start in two and receiving it in one, much as we did last weekend.

In Thursday's game - where we've 'corrected' the AFL and listed the Pies as the true home team - we've taken Collingwood with 19.5 points, playing Geelong. This is our second wager on the Pies this season.

Next, on Saturday, we've taken St Kilda giving 20.5 points start to West Coast at Docklands.

Finally, on Sunday, we're on Port Adelaide giving 30.5 points start to the early-season spoon favourites, the Dees.

On tipping we have:

* Geelong favoured 9 to 4, with Chi opting for a narrow Collingwood victory in his Game of the Round. Both of the Easily Impressed heuristics have gone with Collingwood too, each on the basis of Collingwood's sizeable victory margin last weekend.

* St Kilda favoured 12 to 1, with Easily Impressed I the only dissenting voice.

* The Lions favoured 7 to 6, though Sydney's support includes our current top 3 tipsters in CTL, EI I and FTS. ETO also favours Sydney but by only 1 point making this one of its Games of the Round.

* Essendon, the underdogs, favoured 7 to 6. However, two of the top three tipsters are on Carlton.

* Port Adelaide the unanimous choice, though not quite favoured to cover the 30.5 points spread by Chi and ELO.

* The Kangaroos tipped by all but ELO. Chi, ELO and BKB all have it as a less than two goal margin though.

* Adelaide tipped by all but Home Sweet Home and a fence-sitting BKB. ELO has this as its other Game of the Round.

* Western Bulldogs the unanimous tip, but with Chi tipping them to fail to cover the spread and ELO tipping them to cover.

ELO, as noted previously, has started well on line betting. Its line betting picks this week are: Collingwood, St Kilda, Sydney, Essendon, Melbourne, Roos and the Bulldogs. (There's no line market yet for the Fremantle v Adelaide game.)

Another Acceptable Week

A solid if not spectacular Round 2 for Investors, with 2 wins from 3 line bets once again increasing the wealth of those Investors with Line Redux Fund exposure.

Adelaide, the sole losing bet, never looked like covering the 10.5 points spread, trailed in absolute terms at every change before going on to lose handily. Collingwood also made Investors nervous, taking 3 quarters to provide any sign of solace, and finished at 3QT just one-half a point in advance of the spread before going on to cover by plenty. Sydney, in contrast, were always round about in terms of the spread and looked home on line betting by the end of the 3rd term. In the end, they won outright, making the 16.5 point start pleasingly redundant.

On the tipping front we now have the remarkable situation of three tipsters leading BKB: CTL, EI 1 and FTS (all on 12 from 16). BKB and a range of other tipsters are on 11. Home Sweet Home, which recorded the best score of the round with 7, still languishes on 10 from 16. Chi and ELO are now joint last on just 9 from 16.

Though ELO managed just 5 from 8 on tipping to go with its 4 from last week, it managed an extremely profitable 7 from 8 on line betting, moving it to 12 from 16 on line betting across the first two rounds.

ELO also continues to do well in terms of Mean Absolute Prediction Error. It's now at 30.1, a little ahead of Chi on 34.4 and a little behind BKB on 29.1.

On MARS ratings (see www.mafl-stats.blogspot.com for details), the big moves this weekend have seen Carlton move into the top 8 at the expense of Port Adelaide who, as a result of their loss to the Eagles, have dropped to 10th.

Round 2 - An Entree, A Main Course and A Dessert

Investors with Line Redux Fund exposure can look forward to a little more action this week, with bets placed on Adelaide giving 10.5 points start to the Saints on Friday night, on Collingwood giving 32.5 points start the Dees on Saturday, and on Sydney receiving 16.5 points from the Hawks, also on Saturday.

On the tipping front:

* BKB, Chi, ELO and Home Sweet Home find themselves in the minority in tipping the Crows over the Saints

* There's unanimous support for the Cats who are playing the Tigers. ELO has the Cats as 40 point favourites; BKB has them as 44.5 point favourites

* There's further unanimity in the selection of the Pies to beat the Dees, with ELO and BKB again tipping large margins

* The Blues v Lions clash has split the tipsters, with seven opting for the Blues and six for the Lions. Chi, who's on the Blues, has this as one of his two Games of the Round

* Only Home Sweet Home see the Swans grabbing the points in their game against the Hawks. ELO, however, whilst tipping the Hawks, has them as just 3 point favourites

* All tipsters have the Dons finishing with their noses in front of the Dockers, but none of those tipsters who offer margin forecasts have more than about a goal in it. ELO has this as its Game of the Round; Chi has it as his alternate Game of the Round (he's a dog - he's not good at making definitive choices)

* Speaking of Dogs, they're the unanimous tipster choice in their matchup with the Roos. So strong are the Dogs' chance according to Chi and ELO that this is the only game in which they're both predicting that a favourite to cover the spread.

* Finally, in the Eagles v Port game, everyone except Home Sweet Home is on Port.

Had you used Chi's or ELO's tips and margins for line betting purposes last weekend, you'd have scored just 2 from 8 if you'd used Chi's, but a profitable 5 from 8 if you'd used ELO's. This week, if you were following Chi you'd take the teams receiving start in the first six games of the round, and the teams giving start in the last two. If, instead, you were following ELO, you'd swap Collingwood for Melbourne in game 3 and West Coast for Port Adelaide in Game 8.

In terms of Absolute Prediction Error (the absolute value of the difference between the actual margin and the tipped margin), Chi averaged 35.5 points per game last week, ELO averaged 30.9, and BKB averaged just 28.0. You just have to tip your hat to the bookies ...